UN General Assembly drama Iran

Analytics 15:10 26.09.2018
The annual UN General Assembly is now underway, and while the event rarely offers much in the way of high drama –few leaders, after all, bang their shoes on podiums, sniff the “sulfur” left behind by a US president, or whip out Looney Tunes-inspired illustrations of nuclear weapons – there is one big story to watch this week: Trump and Iran.
 
Later today, we’ll hear speeches from the US President and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani, while tomorrow Mr. Trump will chair a session of the UN Security Council that is ostensibly about stopping the spread of nuclear weapons generally, but which Trump evidently wants to focus on Iran in particular. In these two days we’ll learn a lot about the fate of the Iran nuclear deal and US policy towards the Islamic Republic.
 
For background: Earlier this year, the Trump Administration pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal because the president said the accord hadn’t done enough to limit Tehran’s nuclear program or regional ambitions. Washington has already put some sanctions back on Iran, but the most severe measures – on Iran’s vital oil industry -- will take effect in November. Ahead of that, Iran’s currency has slumped to historic lows while oil exports have fallen more than 30% since the spring.
 
The other signatories to the deal -- the UK, France, Germany, China, Russia and, of course, Iran -- have so far stuck to the terms of the deal, because they fear a complete collapse would push Iran to ramp up its nuclear program, fomenting a perilous regional arms race and raising the risk of a conflict that brings in the US.
 
Over the next few days, Trump and his national security team will press those governments to consider forcing Tehran to accept a new, broader deal with much more stringent terms. Fat chance, given that international observers had repeatedly said the existing deal that all agreed to was working just fine.
 
The Iranians, meanwhile, will be working the room not only to keep the other signatories in the deal – which Tehran has continued to adhere to – but also to seek fresh economic support to cushion the blow of US sanctions.  
 
The trouble for the Iranians: While the other signatories will almost certainly remain in the nuclear deal, there’s not much any of them can do for Iran’s economy. Despite pledges by Brussels to shield European companies from new US sanctions, many of them are scrapping investment plans in the Islamic Republic anyway.
 
And with those oil sanctions set to take effect in just six weeks, Iran’s economic position is getting dicier by the day. As it happens, that is actually helping the hardliners within Iran who never wanted a deal in the first place, and who see a credible nuclear deterrent as something infinitely more valuable than any benefits that may come from an economic opening to the West (see: Kim Jong-un).
 
The wildcard: Trump says he’s open to meeting Rouhani on the sidelines of the UNGA, in what would be the first-ever meeting of presidents of the United States and the Islamic Republic. Hard to see it happening – for one thing, Iran’s Supreme leader back in August put the kibosh on any such meeting. For another, the blood is as bad as ever, with Tehran suggesting that the US was responsible for a terrorist attack on a memorial parade in Iran over the weekend.
 
Ian Bremmer
Political scientist, President of the Eurasia Group
Azerbaijan takes measures to turn Khankandi into safe city - VİDEO

News line

Russia prepares for new offensive in May-June l – says Zelensky
23:52 28.03.2024
Russian investigators have evidence of Ukraine link to Crocus terrorists
22:24 28.03.2024
Committee members of the EU Council will visit the South Caucasus region
19:48 28.03.2024
Bayern to pay Thomas Tuchel 12M euro compensation
Bayern to pay Thomas Tuchel 12M euro compensation
19:00 28.03.2024
Crocus City Hall terrorists took drugs before attack - law enforcement agencies
Crocus City Hall terrorists took drugs before attack - law enforcement agencies
18:33 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan, UN Development Program mull future co-op
18:00 28.03.2024
An Independent Trade Union Established within International Eurasia Press Fund - First in NGO sector - PHOTOS
17:39 28.03.2024
Italian PM condemns Macron for idea of sending troops to Ukraine
Italian PM condemns Macron for idea of sending troops to Ukraine
17:23 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan lends clarity to color requirement for taxis
17:02 28.03.2024
Isaac Herzog: Israel has no greater friend than US, and US has no greater friend than Israel
Isaac Herzog: Israel has no greater friend than US, and US has no greater friend than Israel
16:45 28.03.2024
Nigerian army eliminates over 200 militants in 2 weeks
16:30 28.03.2024
Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine launched in Poland
Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine launched in Poland
16:15 28.03.2024
Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
15:55 28.03.2024
Türkiye plays an important role between Russia and Ukraine - says political scientist Ismail Cingoz
15:45 28.03.2024
2 schoolchildren detained in France on suspicion of sending bomb threats
15:35 28.03.2024
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
15:26 28.03.2024
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
15:15 28.03.2024
Media: US did not transfer all information about terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall to Russia
15:00 28.03.2024
Movement ‘Together’ calls on Armenia’s parliamentary forces to express vote of no confidence in Pashinyan
14:41 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
14:32 28.03.2024
Le Pen accuses French government of fraud
14:22 28.03.2024
Armenian Government Grapples with Internal Division on Village Return Issue - Ishkhan Verdiyan talks on Ednews
14:12 28.03.2024
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
13:41 28.03.2024
Expert Ilyas Huseynov Predicts Peaceful Return of these territories to Azerbaijan
13:20 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
12:55 28.03.2024
Russian MFA concerned about upcoming Armenia-US-EU meeting
12:23 28.03.2024
Secret Points of Pashinyan's Meeting with French Representative: Is Peace Agreement Signing Imminent?
12:00 28.03.2024
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
11:47 28.03.2024
The US-Armenia-EU Joint Conference is a part of the pressure plan on Azerbaijan - MP Konul Nurullayeva
11:30 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
11:23 28.03.2024
CSTO chief: ‘Yerevan doesn’t participate in our work, but there are no statements about suspension’
11:13 28.03.2024
Ammunition found in Khankandi
Ammunition found in Khankandi
11:00 28.03.2024
Russia had been aware of preparation for terrorist attack at Crocus - says intelligience chief
10:46 28.03.2024
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
10:33 28.03.2024
Head of the SSS: France is inciting Armenia to a new war
10:21 28.03.2024
Are we in the brink of World War III? - Pundit talks on Ednews
10:10 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan's National Security: Reflecting on 105 Years of Defending Sovereignty
09:55 28.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev: Rasmussen fell in forgetfulness to attach payment to his report
09:35 28.03.2024
Hand grenades found in Kalbajar
09:25 28.03.2024
Titanic 'door' prop that kept Rose alive sells for $718,750
Titanic 'door' prop that kept Rose alive sells for $718,750
08:50 28.03.2024
Hamısı