Oil in bear market as supply rises, demand outlook weakens

Economy 14:12 09.11.2018

 Oil stabilized on Friday after spending most of the week sliding, but markets remained weak as rising supply and concerns of an economic slowdown pressured prices, with U.S. crude down by around 20 percent since early October.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $65.61 per barrel at 0741 GMT, 6 cents below their last settlement. WTI is set for a fifth weekly fall, down 4 percent so far this week.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $70.74 a barrel, 9 cents above their last close. Still, Brent is poised for an almost 3 percent drop for the week, its fifth straight week of decline.

Both Brent and WTI have fallen by around 20 percent from the four-year highs they reached in early October.

“Oil prices ... are now officially in a bear market, having declined 20 percent from their (October) peak,” said William O’Loughlin, investment analyst at Australia’s Rivkin Securities.

Analysts said the main downward price pressure came from rising supply, despite the U.S. sanctions against Iran that were imposed this week, as well as concerns over an economic slowdown.

“As OPEC exports continue to rise, inventories continue to build which is putting downward pressure on oil prices,” analysts at Bernstein Energy said.

“A slowdown in the global economy remains the key downside risk to oil,” Bernstein added.

Traders said a glut in the refining sector, where a wave of unsold gasoline has pulled down profit margins into negative territory, may also lead to a slowdown in new feedstock crude orders, as refiners scale back operations to work down excess supply.

“The global gasoline glut reached Singapore this week, where gasoline cracks collapsed. Refining margins contracted across all regions, with gasoline cracks now near or below zero in all regions,” U.S. investment bank Jefferies said in a note on Friday.

In China, automobile sales fell 11.7 percent in October from a year earlier, the country’s top auto industry association said on Friday, dragging year-to-date sales growth into negative territory for the first time.

The drop, the steepest since a 26.4 percent tumble at the start of 2012, also marked the fourth straight month of declining sales in the world’s largest auto market.

The drop in oil prices over the past weeks follows a rally between August and October when crude rose ahead of the re-introduction of sanctions against Iran’s oil exports on Nov. 5.

The sanctions, however, are unlikely to cut as much oil out of the market as initially expected as Washington has granted exemptions to Iran’s biggest buyers which will allow them to continue buying limited amounts of crude for at least another six months.

China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) said on Friday it was still taking oil from Iranian fields in which it has stakes.

Bernstein Energy expects “Iranian exports will average 1.4-1.5 million barrels per day (bpd)” during the exemption period, down from a peak of almost 3 million bpd in mid-2018.

 

Ilham Aliyev participates in High Level Segment of 15th Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin - VİDEO

News line

Tensions Rise as Chad Considers Expelling US Forces: US influence in Africa tumbles
Tensions Rise as Chad Considers Expelling US Forces: US influence in Africa tumbles
13:00 26.04.2024
President Ilham Aliyev: As the host country of COP29, Azerbaijan is in active phase of preparation
12:45 26.04.2024
Ilham Aliyev participates in High Level Segment of 15th Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin - VİDEO
12:32 26.04.2024
Details of the expected peace agreement are explained by a political scientist
12:20 26.04.2024
The anniversary of the so-called "Armenian genocide" was held in Iran - PHOTOS
12:09 26.04.2024
Blinken expected in Israel on Tuesday to discuss Rafah operation, hostage deal - Media
Blinken expected in Israel on Tuesday to discuss Rafah operation, hostage deal - Media
11:54 26.04.2024
COP29 delegation meets Spanish minister for ecological transition
11:53 26.04.2024
Russian-Turkish Monitoring Centre in Azerbaijan's Aghdam ceased its activity - VİDEO
11:40 26.04.2024
ISW: If Russia captures Chasov Yar, this will open the way for it to the “defense belt”
11:22 26.04.2024
Chinese FM warns about possible risk of further expansion of Ukraine war
10:50 26.04.2024
Zelensky: 'NATO countries are afraid of Russia'
10:38 26.04.2024
Azerbaijani police discovered explosive devices in Khojavand
10:23 26.04.2024
Greece refuses to provide Ukraine with Patriot systems
10:12 26.04.2024
Price of Azerbaijan oil drops
Price of Azerbaijan oil drops
10:00 26.04.2024
Azerbaijani minister mulls preparations for COP29 with Annalena Baerbock
09:50 26.04.2024
US expands its sanctions list on Iran
US expands its sanctions list on Iran
09:38 26.04.2024
Azerbaijan relocates another 39 families to Fuzuli city
09:26 26.04.2024
Media: US Embassy in Russia is testing water quality to avoid being poisoned
09:00 26.04.2024
Armenian lobby plans provocative rally during Azerbaijani President's Germany visit
00:35 26.04.2024
Xavi agrees to remain Barcelona coach
Xavi agrees to remain Barcelona coach
22:00 25.04.2024
Plane of Azerbaijani President leaves for Berlin from Fuzuli Airport for first time
21:00 25.04.2024
20 border posts installed on Azerbaijan-Armenia border
20:00 25.04.2024
This could be the end of the world economy - Predictions from English politologue
19:25 25.04.2024
Anti-Azerbaijan and Türkiye banners raised in Ukraine on Anniversary of So-Called Armenian Genocide - VİDEO
Anti-Azerbaijan and Türkiye banners raised in Ukraine on Anniversary of So-Called Armenian Genocide - VİDEO
18:50 25.04.2024
Deadly floods wreak havoc in Kenya’s capital
18:29 25.04.2024
Armenia Continues Unsubstantiated Claims Against Azerbaijan in The Hague Court - VİDEO
18:08 25.04.2024
Polish FM: Russia's attack on NATO will result in Moscow's defeat
17:55 25.04.2024
China Facilitates Arms Trade Route Between North Korea and Russia, US Satellite Observations Reveal
17:48 25.04.2024
More than 100 prisoners escaped from prison due to rains in Nigeria
More than 100 prisoners escaped from prison due to rains in Nigeria
17:32 25.04.2024
Kobakhidze: Georgia to soon become member of European Union
17:12 25.04.2024
Kyrgyz President Zhaparov concludes his state visit to Azerbaijan
16:47 25.04.2024
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev invites European Council President Charles Michel to COP29
16:34 25.04.2024
Macron: Europe must show that it is not a US vassal
16:12 25.04.2024
Credit investment in Azerbaijan’s economy increases by 23%
16:00 25.04.2024
Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan to cooperate in space field
Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan to cooperate in space field
15:49 25.04.2024
Protesters in Yerevan demand resignation of government
Protesters in Yerevan demand resignation of government
15:28 25.04.2024
Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Sadyr Zhaparov tour Shahbulag Castle in Aghdam
15:00 25.04.2024
Second meeting of Foreign Affairs Committee Chairs of Parliaments of Turkic States to be held in Türkiye
Second meeting of Foreign Affairs Committee Chairs of Parliaments of Turkic States to be held in Türkiye
14:30 25.04.2024
First Azerbaijani Ombudsman dies
14:00 25.04.2024
Azerbaijan weather forecast for April 26
Azerbaijan weather forecast for April 26
13:40 25.04.2024
Hamısı