Radu Magdin, an analyst and consultant, former Romanian prime ministerial advisor and vice president of the Strategikon think tank gave exclusive interview regarding presidential election in France.
Eurasia Diary: From your opinion, which two candidates are expected to get more percentage of votes in the first round of presidential election?
Radu Magdin: I think the question is: who will enter the second round with Mrs Le Pen. Macron still has the magic but does not have a big party organisation behind him. Fillon has lost most of his magic but has a big political mamooth backing him. So, it's between Macron and Fillon, who will inch in the second round. Which one of the Monsieurs will be facing Madame is yet an open question, since a month is a long time in politics and campaigning. If several candidates desist last minute and support Macron, then he will ride the wave, by his capacity to bring enthusiasm to people about the future of France. I think it's smart for him to campaign on the future, he is young and vibrant; whereas the other candidates look more focused on the present or the past, in terms of campaigning.
Eurasia Diary: From your point of view, how will results of presidential election affect the foreign policy of France?
Radu Magdin: I see a lot of openness towards Russia, definitely more at Fillon and Le Pen than at Macron, who is more anglo-saxon in his charm and approach. What I think it's important, first and foremost, is that France stays at the heart pf the European project, an active part of the "franco-german engine" which historically helped things through in times of EU crisis. That would be the case with both Fillon or Macron. In case Mrs Le Pen scores the improbable and becomes President, I think the mainstream parties will unite in Parliament and try to contain her. Including in the European Council, we may see a duo: Prime Minister-President, like in the "cohabitation" Chirac-Jospin.
Eurasia Diary; How can you anticipate the future of the European Union after presidential election in France?
Radu Madin: I am both an optimist and a realist. I believe in the second round the mainstream vote will unite behind Fillon or Macron. Europe is safe for the moment, but heavy assault by populists and extremists will continue, with Italy the next round in this match.
by Yunis Abdullayev
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