The president of the United States, Donald Trump stated that he has no intention to take part in Paris agreement, due to fact that this agreement will cause the loss of million jobs in the US. White House’s decision is criticized by Canada and European countries, as well as the US Secretariats and United States Department of Defense . There are speculations that China may take opportunity to play leading role in climate agreement.
Eurasia Diary interviewed Radu Magdin, an analyst and consultant, former advisor to the Prime Minister of Romania and Vice-President of the Strategikon think tank regarding the withdrawal of the US from Paris agreement.
Eurasia Diary: Trump administration has already decided to reject participating in Paris agreement. Trump’s attempt made European countries surprise. From point of your view, how the withdrawal of the US from environment agreement will affect Europe?
Radu Magdin: There are several layers: first of all, the transatlantic rift seems stronger than ever, examining the standards of the last decades; second, of course, the US economy being one of the biggest chunks of the world economy, the agreement is affected proportionally - some cities can make a difference, but will not change the wider picture and perception; third, geopolitically speaking, other countries have the opportunity to fill the power / presence gap: China is the best example, after Xi's Davos support for globalization, now comes teaming up with Europe in supporting the climate agreement.
Eurasia Diary: The exit of the US may encourage China to gain opportunity to cooperate with the European Union in the settlement of environmental problems. What can you say about this?
Radu Magdin: It's a moment of opportunity that has been seized correctly by Beijing. China may be interested in using this window of opportunity to negotiate ways to further its investments plans in Europe, and consolidate One Belt One Road planning. It's interesting how things changed, in terms of perception, in just one year: in 2016 US and EU were both talking and acting in the same direction, while Russia was diversifying with China, via concrete energy projects. Now, everything seems up for grabs, in a new grand renegotiation: Trump may be tempted to talk more with Russia, while Europe finds a natural new partner in China, who is constructive on topics of interest like the climate agreement. France will be particularly pleased, since the Paris agreement is a landmark project for the country and the planet: Macron's "Make the Planet Great Again" is an appropriate response to President Trump's announcement, with wide sympathy in the online and offline world.
Eurasia Dairy: How do you think, cooperation for the promotion of the climate agreement between China and the European Union will enhance Chinese influence in Europe?
Radu Magdin: Yes, it's natural, but don't expect a warm embrace: this does not mean that Europe will give up its trade and investment opportunities as regards the Chinese - we still live in the world of competing trade blocs - , but clearly dialogue will be smoother. The risk with Trump administrations' steps is to send a wider signal to allies around the world that new alliances may be negotiated. Despite systemic assurances, via the State, Defense and other US Secretaries, American allies are still anxious when they see Presidential announcements: America First will not make America Alone, but will make allies diversify just in case.
