20 June, Wednesday

North Korea may have great loss in this crisis by losing China - Dr. Fehmi Gurdalli - EXCLUSIVE


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Eurasia Diary conducted a special interview with Haberturk TV Foreign News Director Dr. Fehmi Gurdalli about one of the most important issues in the last months- North Korea- US tension. Gurdalli assessed for Eurasia Diary North Korea’s last hydrogen bomb test, the extent to which the tension could continue and the possible steps the parties could take. Here is that interview: 
North Korea-US tension is the number one issue that is on the agenda  for almost a month. In reality, the events calmed down with North Korea’s delayed plan of shooting Guam. So, what happened that in the last days North Korea agenda flared out again ? What was the main reason for North Korea’s last hydrogen bomb test?
- North Korea is a “closed box” country . In this country, there is government that does unforeseen works and there are people who have big drama for generations. North Korea needs stories of heroism, shows and enemies to keep her 25 million population out of this reality, in the artificial world.  The last nuclear test is the result of this. They want to show that they are the country that defies the world, the US, South Korea, Japan. Like many closed countries, she is focused not on economic, but military success. As in many countries ruled with dictatorship, North Korea leadership thinks that military tension or limited conflict will lengthen its life. 
We know North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a person who makes crazy decisions. Do you think that North Korea’s policy is cleverly planned strategy or this country is a spoiled child of the Pacific that makes arbitrary decisions?
- If we look either from the viewpoint of his own people or the international community, the North Korean leader is a person who makes completely arbitrary decisions. Moreover, with his recent steps he is about to lose closest friends like China. In this crisis, she may have great loss by losing China. He is a dangerous leader whose behaviour is unforeseen for the countries of the region, especially for South Korea and Japan, if not for the US.  There are also other leaders in the world whose behaviours are unforeseen. However, differently from others, Kim Jong-un has nuclear power, and thus the ability to turn the lives of millions of people into nightmare. 
US Defense Secretary Mattis and US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Halley stated on tensions happening in the last days that they will respond harshly to a possible missile launch of North Korea. In your opinion, is North Korea likely to launch missiles into South Korea or US territory? How will the US react if such a step is taken? On the other hand, is it possible for the US to be aware of the missile launches beforehand and take action?
- It is not clear whether North Korea has the ability to hit the United States or not. But this is seen as a weak possibility. Even if it happens, it is a strong possibility that the missiles to be sent to the US will be destroyed by air defense systems. So, at the moment, the biggest threat is not for the US, but for countries like South Korea and Japan. If the tension between Washington and Pyongyang turns into a hot battle / operation, the strongest possibility is that the US will make a preventive strike.  In my opinion, before a possible attack by the North Korea, US shoot of 20 strategically important institutions there, is the strongest military scenario before us. North Korea is helping the United States for implementing this scenario by disturbing the international community with missile tests and nuclear tests. North Korea, even in the event of a possible US attack, will not find support from any country including China.
What steps should be taken to calm down the tension?
- Someone has to take over for the war to be silenced.Switzerland undertook a mediating role. It may be China, but the Beijing administration has not tried to involve too much even now.  Indirectly,a communication channel must be opened. While North Korea puts an end to her tests, the United States should leave the discourse of military intervention. After the high tension returns to normal, a more comprehensive negotiation process should be initiated under the UN umbrella so that the tension will not climb again. However, considering recent developments, a long-term diplomatic initiative to reduce tension does not seem to have a good chance of success.
Mirali Mirhashimli

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