Alarm in Azov: Clash between Russia and Ukraine Interview by Reinhard Heinisch and Bogdana Shytiuk

Interviews 16:43 30.11.2018

Ukrainian ships were captured by Russian powers referring the violence of waters in Kerch Strait. The tension becomes more fierce day by day. For the analysis of the situation, Eurasia Diary took an interview jointly Reinhard Heinisch and Bogdana Shytiuk.

Reinhard Heinisch is Professor of Comparative Austrian politics and also chairs the Department of Political Science and Sociology in the University of Salzburg. He is also a European Studies Center affiliate of the University of Pittsburgh, USA, where he served on the faculty from 1994 to 2009.

Bogdana Shytiuk is a junior researcher in Ukraine and currently at the University of Salzburg.

The tension between the two states can be a signal for another war?

That is a possibility but it is doubtful that anybody wants further escalation. Ukraine is not in a position to very successful in a major war with Russia and is likely to lose even more territory. NATO and the West are unlikely to much for Ukraine besides delivering more weapons but we foresee no scenario in which the West would actively intervene.

How the contradiction will affect the relations between the two states?

That will depend very much on how the current tensions will resolve themselves. There is still a sizable Russian-Ukrainian population in Ukraine and there are also elections coming up next year in spring. If the ongoing Ukrainian-Russia tensions become an increasingly internal Ukrainian conflict between ethnic Russians living in Eastern Ukraine and pro-EU Western Ukrainians then this would deepen the rift inside Ukraine. There has also been an increase in Ukrainian nationalism as a result of the Russian aggression which in turn makes the Russians inside Ukraine concerned about their future and their status. There are efforts underway to declare only Ukrainian as the official language and de facto relegating Russian to a second place status. Any additional open conflict between Russia and Ukraine will exacerbate these tensions.

How can we understand this tension by the Russian and Ukrainian side?

There are (as always) two versions. The Russians are generally the aggressors under international law for seizing the Crimean and fomenting a quasi-rebellion in two of Ukraine’s eastern provinces. They also recently build a bridge to connect the Crimean with Russia proper: Russia said the Ukrainian ships were in its waters illegally because Moscow had temporarily closed an area of water for shipping.

Kiev called Russia's actions a flagrant violation of international law, because the Black Sea is free for shipping, and Crimea belongs to Ukraine. Ukraine also cited a 2003 Russia-Ukraine treaty on unimpeded access to the Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov. It said it had informed the Russians in advance of its plan to move its ships to Mariupol - a claim denied by Russia. In recent weeks, two Ukrainian vessels passed through the Kerch Straight without incident.

There are also those who argue that Ukrainian President Poroshenko has provoked this incident because he wanted to impose martial law in the border provinces that are predominantly ethnic Russian and who don’t like Poroshenko and his government. This now gives a relatively unpopular president the opportunity to shore up his credentials and suppress the opposition in those provinces. But marital law was only declared for 30 days and perhaps it all goes back to normal after that.

The increase of military aggression of Russia can pass on other places, for example in Middle East or another region?

I doubt this because Russia has little gain from open aggression. In Syria they have been quite successful in achieving their objectives, why risk this now by provoking perhaps others (Turkey? US even?) to get involved. The Russian economy is also reeling from the sanctions which may be lifted at some point in the future, why give the Western hardliners more reason to maintain the sanctions or make them even stricter.  In Ukraine, the Russians have achieved their objective, the Crimean, I am not so sure that economically speaking Russia wants the poor and economically depressed parts of Eastern Ukraine – then they would have to pay for them. A divided and weak Ukraine with a simmering conflict is probably much better from Moscow’s perspective.

Interviewed by Ulvi Ahmedli

Azerbaijan Defense Minister informs NATO chief on situation in Azerbaijan-Armenia conditional border -VIDEO

News line

Azerbaijani police found numerous weapons and ammunition in Khankandi
11:08 19.03.2024
US Maritime Administration issues new advisory amid rising maritime threats in Middle East
10:55 19.03.2024
EU looks forward to cooperation with Azerbaijan for successful COP29
10:38 19.03.2024
EU to impose tariffs on Russian grain
10:11 19.03.2024
Embassy of Azerbaijan in France appeals to Azerbaijanis
10:00 19.03.2024
Azerbaijani oil price exceeds $88
Azerbaijani oil price exceeds $88
09:48 19.03.2024
Mehriban Aliyeva makes post on Last Tuesday before Novruz Holiday
09:35 19.03.2024
Pashinyan: Delimitation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan entered practical stage
09:00 19.03.2024
Pakistan restricts foreign travels of ministers, government officials
Pakistan restricts foreign travels of ministers, government officials
20:39 18.03.2024
EU to boost military support fund for Ukraine by EUR 5 bln — Hungarian foreign minister
20:00 18.03.2024
Industrial zones to be created in Azerbaijan’s Zangilan, Jabrayil, and Gubadli
19:16 18.03.2024
Reuters: Only an oil slump can stop Russia
19:00 18.03.2024
Top Hamas operative killed in hospital raid, IDF says
Top Hamas operative killed in hospital raid, IDF says
18:33 18.03.2024
President Ilham Aliyev congratulates people of Azerbaijan on occasion of Novruz holiday - UPDATED
18:00 18.03.2024
Jens Stoltenberg: We fully support Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity
Jens Stoltenberg: We fully support Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity
17:47 18.03.2024
2 dead, 6 injured in Türkiye factory explosion
2 dead, 6 injured in Türkiye factory explosion
17:28 18.03.2024
Armenia’s anti-Russian policy reaches new level
17:11 18.03.2024
"The Middle Corridor plays a key role for Green Energy" - Expert Ali Pasha
16:45 18.03.2024
Central square of Khankandi named “Victory Square”
16:22 18.03.2024
President: We demonstrated tremendous heroism during the II Karabakh War and the anti-terror operation
16:16 18.03.2024
Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Muhammad Yunus visited IEPF - PHOTOS - VIDEO
16:00 18.03.2024
Historic opportunity emerged to advance the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace agenda - FM Bayramov
15:21 18.03.2024
Bayramov and Stoltenberg discuss normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia
15:03 18.03.2024
Azerbaijan Defense Minister informs NATO chief on situation in Azerbaijan-Armenia conditional border -VIDEO
14:58 18.03.2024
Stoltenberg's visit to the Caucasus: "NATO is in panic" - OPİNİON
14:29 18.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev holds discussions for upcoming COP29 with Chinese Vice FM
Hikmat Hajiyev holds discussions for upcoming COP29 with Chinese Vice FM
14:00 18.03.2024
Stoltenberg concludes his official visit to Azerbaijan
13:42 18.03.2024
Geomagnetic storm expected on March 20
13:33 18.03.2024
Mbappe celebrates his 250th goal in PSG
Mbappe celebrates his 250th goal in PSG
13:19 18.03.2024
President Ilham Aliyev makes a phone call to Vladimir Putin
13:00 18.03.2024
President Ilham Aliyev lit Novruz bonfire in Khankandi and congratulated Azerbaijani people
12:34 18.03.2024
Foreign students attacked in India over Ramadan prayers
12:30 18.03.2024
Spring comes to Northern Hemisphere
Spring comes to Northern Hemisphere
12:17 18.03.2024
Why does Azerbaijan matter to the European Union? - OPINION
12:00 18.03.2024
Number of human remains found in mass grave in Khojaly reaches 19
11:45 18.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev meets Pakistani envoy to China
Hikmat Hajiyev meets Pakistani envoy to China
11:33 18.03.2024
EU Council to discuss Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization
11:23 18.03.2024
Global Terrorism Index: Azerbaijan among countries with highest anti-terror rating worldwide
10:56 18.03.2024
Oil prices keep rising
Oil prices keep rising
10:40 18.03.2024
Stoltenberg: NATO looking forward to further strengthening partnership with Azerbaijan
10:23 18.03.2024
Hamısı