Joel Wing is a senior Iraqi journalist and analyst, exclusively talked to Eurasia Diary regarding his in depth analysis.
Eurasia Diary: How do you see the recent ISIS attack in Mosul?
Joel Wing: Both Iraq's PM Abadi and US President Obama said they wanted Mosul to be free before the end of the year so there was pressure to start the Mosul operation sooner rather than later.
Eurasia Diary: According to the UN Mosul war will create the world biggest humanitarian crisis? Do you agree on this?
Joel Wing: Mosul will definitely cause the great humanitarian crisis in Iraq so far. That's because of the size of the population of the Mosul area, which if you include the surrounding towns could be around 1 million people. The Iraqi government has dropped flyers trying to encourage people to stay in their homes but you can't predict whether they will do that or flee when the fighting starts. Either way there will be a huge task of trying to assist all the people who will be effected during the battle for the city.
Eurasia Diary: Do you think that the Iraqi army will tackle this attack of ISIS? As still they are badly failed to control this thrash?
Joel Wing: The Islamic State is on the retreat and trying to regroup after all of its recent losses in Iraq. Mosul could very well go down like Fallujah did previously where there are strong outer defenses, but once those are penetrated taking the actual city could be relatively easy compared to other battles like Tikrit or Ramadi. That's because most of the people are still living inside Mosul and there are Islamic State cadre, families, etc. That means the militants cannot lay down IEDs and other defenses inside the city with all those people there making it harder for them to defend and hold areas.
Eurasia Diary: Some experts are saying that the Mosul will be bigger war front even more than Aleppo? What are your thoughts?
Joel Wing: The challenge of Mosul is the sheer size of the place. The area is almost as large as Baghdad. Surrounding the city and then taking it piece by piece will be a huge task and will take a long time, but again, I think IS defenses could collapse rather quickly.
Eurasia Diary: The victory bell has rung" in the mission to retake the key city, Iraq's second largest, and free more than 1 million residents from the "brutality and terrorism of ISIS," al-Abadi said in a televised statement early Monday morning how much reality in this statement?
Joel Wing: The Iraqi forces have been building up for this operation for weeks now. They've placed the necessary forces south of the city. They have worked with the Americans to get the cooperation of the Kurds and their Peshmerga while trying to limit the role of other groups. I have no doubt that the city will be taken.
Eurasia Diary: Mosul is the last strong hold of ISIS in Iraq, do you think that the Iraqi and the coalition forces are going to destroy the ISIS backbone in Iraq?
Joel Wing: ISIS actually still controls areas of Kirkuk province like Hawija and Riyad and western Anbar along the Syrian border. Those areas will be tackled after Mosul. The insurgents are definitely on the retreat in Iraq. The last pieces of land they hold will eventually be taken. That doesn't mean the group is defeated however as it is already trying to rebuild and regroup in rural areas of the country to carry out an insurgency, and its terrorist campaign in Baghdad has not stopped at all. The question is how much pressure will the Iraqi forces be able to put on the group after the last bit of territory is lost.
Eurasia Diary: How much the coalition forces with the Iraqi army are serious in the Mosul war? Will they attain their set targets and goals?
Joel Wing: The Iraqi forces have urban assaults pretty well worked out by now. The lead will be taken by the elite Golden Division. The Iraqi army and Federal Police will be backing them up and doing hold and clear operations. The Hashd and Peshmerga have said that they will work to capture the surrounding towns and promised to stay out of Mosul itself, but that's yet to be seen. The only real question is how long it will take the area, because again, the size of Mosul presents some real dilemma.