US to resort to use of force if Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz Ex-CIA Officer

Politics 10:27 14.12.2018

The US and Iran may find themselves in a hot conflict if Tehran delivers on its promise to close the Strait of Hormuz, Philip Giraldi, a former counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer at the CIA, told Sputnik, explaining why tensions are likely to escalate even further by May 2019.

"It is a show of force to pre-empt any aggressive action by Iran, particularly if they try to interfere with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as they have threatened", says Philip Giraldi, a former counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer at the CIA, commenting on the USS John C. Stennis' deployment in the Middle Eastern region. "Aircraft carriers are always moved around to wherever there is any possibility of conflict".

On 8 December, a carrier strike group led by the Nimitz-class super-carrier USS John C. Stennis arrived in the Arabian Sea. Earlier, The Wall Street Journal opined that the US aircraft carrier strike group had been sent to the region "in [a] show of force against Iran".

Indeed, Washington has not deployed a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf since March 2018. The timing of the operation coincided with the escalation of tensions between Tehran and Washington.

On 2 December, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) had tested a medium-range missile that is "capable of carrying multiple warheads".

In response, Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi rejected the allegations, saying that Iran's missile program is "defensive in nature" and by no means violates any of UN Security Council's resolutions.

Tehran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in response to Washington's sanctions and assertive foreign policy course. In May 2018, the US unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, and resumed sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

Meanwhile, Tasnim reported that the Sahand, a domestically-made stealth destroyer, had joined the Iranian navy in the Persian Gulf on 1 December. Reportedly, the warship is equipped with surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, anti-aircraft and anti-ship guns, and can be effectively used in electronic warfare.

On 4 December, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani yet again signalled readiness to close the Strait of Hormuz, which remains the world's busiest sea lane for oil shipments, if Trump disrupts the IRI's crude trade.

"If Iran does try to interfere with traffic or even block the straits there will be a response from the US and its Arab allies in the Gulf", Giraldi emphasised. "I believe they would hit a target that is military, much like the cruise missile launches in Syria, to serve as a warning. If the situation worsens, they would hit a military target run by the Revolutionary Guards hard. The situation could easily escalate from there".  

Meanwhile, on 12 December, the John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group (CSG) and the Essex Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) conducted joint naval drills in the Arabian Sea, according to the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service (DVIDS) website.

Although the deployment of the USS John C. Stennis in the Middle East was prescheduled according to The Wall Street Journal, it is largely seen as a slap in the face of Iran.

Why US-Iran Tensions May Further Escalate in May 2019

"I believe that when the exemptions [from Iranian oil sanctions] expire in May 2019 the conflict will escalate", the CIA veteran foresees. "Most of the buyers of Iranian oil will go along with the US demands, but some, including Turkey and China (possibly also India), will not. The United States will be tempted to strike Iran militarily to warn those who are hesitating that it is serious about the sanctions".

Previously, Trump imposed the next batch of sanctions on Iran, particularly targeting the country's oil industry. However, to avoid the upsurge in crude prices, the White House granted waivers to 8 countries. The exceptions are designed to last 6 months.

EU Media Raising Alarm Over Iran's Missile Programme

The fuss raised by the US over Tehran's missile programme may affect EU states, which continue to demonstrate commitment to the JCPOA.

On 9 December, the German daily Die Welt reported that "that the number of Iranian ballistic missile tests has more than doubled", citing intelligence sources and claiming that Iran's missile activity violated UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

"The ballistic missile program is a red herring as Iran does not possess the warheads for the missiles that can do real damage", Giraldi underscored. "Everyone understands this, but the US and Israel are exploiting the program to raise the threat level".

According to the former intelligence officer, "Pompeo focuses on the missiles because he knows that otherwise Iran is in full compliance with the JCPOA and all other international agreements".

"Die Welt is wrong about the missiles being a violation of either the JCPOA or the UN Security Council resolution", the CIA veteran highlighted. "The Europeans might indeed negotiate with Iran using the missiles as a bargaining point, but, for the moment, I am afraid that they will go along with the bad policies being pursued by the United States".

The views and opinions expressed by the contributors do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.

 

Azerbaijan Defense Minister informs NATO chief on situation in Azerbaijan-Armenia conditional border -VIDEO

News line

NATO Secretary General: Baku, Yerevan can reach lasting peace
NATO Secretary General: Baku, Yerevan can reach lasting peace
15:00 19.03.2024
German envoy congratulates people of Azerbaijan on Novruz holiday
German envoy congratulates people of Azerbaijan on Novruz holiday
14:45 19.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev: Baku attaches great importance to developing Azerbaijan-China relations
Hikmat Hajiyev: Baku attaches great importance to developing Azerbaijan-China relations
14:30 19.03.2024
Tourist flow to Azerbaijan soars by almost 50%
Tourist flow to Azerbaijan soars by almost 50%
14:15 19.03.2024
Manager of German club achieves another milestone
13:55 19.03.2024
Turkish intelligence neutralizes one of PKK leaders
Turkish intelligence neutralizes one of PKK leaders
13:45 19.03.2024
Moldova’s Foreign Ministry to expel Russian Embassy employee
Moldova’s Foreign Ministry to expel Russian Embassy employee
13:30 19.03.2024
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 20
13:13 19.03.2024
Israel, Hamas ready to compromise at Doha talks
13:05 19.03.2024
More than dozen workers trapped in one of Russia's largest gold mines
More than dozen workers trapped in one of Russia's largest gold mines
12:49 19.03.2024
Armenia may face a war if refuses to discuss border issues - Pashinyan
12:22 19.03.2024
North Korea holds firing drill using super-large multiple rocket launchers
North Korea holds firing drill using super-large multiple rocket launchers
11:55 19.03.2024
Fenerbahçe to discuss withdrawing from 'Super Lig'
11:32 19.03.2024
Azerbaijani police found numerous weapons and ammunition in Khankandi
11:08 19.03.2024
US Maritime Administration issues new advisory amid rising maritime threats in Middle East
10:55 19.03.2024
EU looks forward to cooperation with Azerbaijan for successful COP29
10:38 19.03.2024
EU to impose tariffs on Russian grain
10:11 19.03.2024
Embassy of Azerbaijan in France appeals to Azerbaijanis
10:00 19.03.2024
Azerbaijani oil price exceeds $88
Azerbaijani oil price exceeds $88
09:48 19.03.2024
Mehriban Aliyeva makes post on Last Tuesday before Novruz Holiday
09:35 19.03.2024
Pashinyan: Delimitation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan entered practical stage
09:00 19.03.2024
Pakistan restricts foreign travels of ministers, government officials
Pakistan restricts foreign travels of ministers, government officials
20:39 18.03.2024
EU to boost military support fund for Ukraine by EUR 5 bln — Hungarian foreign minister
20:00 18.03.2024
Industrial zones to be created in Azerbaijan’s Zangilan, Jabrayil, and Gubadli
19:16 18.03.2024
Reuters: Only an oil slump can stop Russia
19:00 18.03.2024
Top Hamas operative killed in hospital raid, IDF says
Top Hamas operative killed in hospital raid, IDF says
18:33 18.03.2024
President Ilham Aliyev congratulates people of Azerbaijan on occasion of Novruz holiday - UPDATED
18:00 18.03.2024
Jens Stoltenberg: We fully support Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity
Jens Stoltenberg: We fully support Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity
17:47 18.03.2024
2 dead, 6 injured in Türkiye factory explosion
2 dead, 6 injured in Türkiye factory explosion
17:28 18.03.2024
Armenia’s anti-Russian policy reaches new level
17:11 18.03.2024
"The Middle Corridor plays a key role for Green Energy" - Expert Ali Pasha
16:45 18.03.2024
Central square of Khankandi named “Victory Square”
16:22 18.03.2024
President: We demonstrated tremendous heroism during the II Karabakh War and the anti-terror operation
16:16 18.03.2024
Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Muhammad Yunus visited IEPF - PHOTOS - VIDEO
16:00 18.03.2024
Historic opportunity emerged to advance the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace agenda - FM Bayramov
15:21 18.03.2024
Bayramov and Stoltenberg discuss normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia
15:03 18.03.2024
Azerbaijan Defense Minister informs NATO chief on situation in Azerbaijan-Armenia conditional border -VIDEO
14:58 18.03.2024
Stoltenberg's visit to the Caucasus: "NATO is in panic" - OPİNİON
14:29 18.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev holds discussions for upcoming COP29 with Chinese Vice FM
Hikmat Hajiyev holds discussions for upcoming COP29 with Chinese Vice FM
14:00 18.03.2024
Stoltenberg concludes his official visit to Azerbaijan
13:42 18.03.2024
Hamısı