It is becoming increasingly likely that the UK will have to request extension of the Article 50 deadline. But a longer extension might mean that the UK would have to hold European Parliament elections.
The UK is scheduled to leave the EU in just seven weeks’ time, but the outcome of the Brexit process is still highly uncertain. Britain could leave without a deal, or with the current deal, perhaps softened through a revision of the political declaration – the part of the withdrawal package that relates to relationship the UK and EU want after Brexit. Or there could be a general election, or a second referendum. Whichever of these options comes to pass, it is becoming increasingly likely that the UK will have to ask for the extension of the two-year Article 50 process.
After European leaders endorsed the Brexit withdrawal package on November 25th, the EU has pushed on quickly with the ratification process, to allow Britain to leave as planned on March 29th. The Council has already adopted a decision on the signing of the withdrawal agreement and forwarded the text to the European Parliament for its approval. However, the UK Parliament – which also has to pass the deal – has made very little progress. Every day without UK ratification is a day closer to a damaging no deal Brexit.
After the House of Commons rejected the withdrawal agreement on January 15th, and then voted for Prime Minister Theresa May to replace the so-called Irish backstop with “alternative arrangements”, speculation has grown that the UK will have to ask the EU-27 for an Article 50 extension. The EU has made it clear that it will not change the text of the Irish protocol. But without a substantial change to the withdrawal agreement, it is unlikely that May will get Commons to support it. The government is working to bring a revised deal to Parliament as soon as possible. May will make a statement to Parliament about the state of play no later than February 13th – which could pave the way for lawmakers to vote on May’s deal on Valentine’s Day.
When British politicians talk about an Article 50 extension they often give the impression that it is just a question of asking politely. But they ignore the fact that Brexit is a negotiation, not a monologue. The 27 member-states must agree unanimously to the UK’s request to extend the Article 50 deadline.
