The climate changes in the Arctic should be addressed in estimating business models for the projects, which are planned for the Russian Arctic zone, an expert of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Geology, Petrography, Minerology and Geochemistry Konstantin Lobanov said.
According to the UN Environment Program’s assessment report, it is unlikely the warming in the Arctic will remain within two degrees Celsius, as the Paris Agreement has suggested. The air temperatures in the Arctic by 2050 will be by 3-5 degrees above the average levels of 1986-2005, and by 2080 - by 5-9 degrees.
"The warming has begun, the ice has retreated from the ocean shores, revealing big territories with a wide strap of mineral resources," he said. "For example, exploration in Greenland has stretched way under the glaciers."
"In implementation of major investment projects in the Russian Arctic zone, we should take into account the warming processes, as thus we shall be able to diversify the economy in those regions and to move from the present large-scale oil and gas production," he said. "We must focus already now on the ore deposits, which will become promising fields due to the warming processes."
The mining industry is a locomotive for the Arctic’s development, as the Russian Arctic zone keeps many deposits of various metals and minerals, the expert said.
"In addition to oil and gas, there are many mineral deposits along the entire Northern Sea Route," he continued. "Transporting those minerals will also add to the cargo flows along the Northern Sea Route."
One of the tasks, the Russian president voiced in May, refers to development of the main Arctic navigation route - the Northern Sea Route (NSR). By 2024, the annual cargo turnover along it should grow tenfold - to 80 million tonnes. The key direction in NSR’s development is to serve transportation of raw materials from 15 working and future projects, where eleven projects are in oil and gas production, and four - in production of ores and coal.