Within the past month, there has been a dramatic change in which of the two major parties is positioned for success in the 2018 midterm elections.
As President Trump has worked to negotiate denuclearization with Iran and North Korea, with varying degrees of success, and unemployment has dropped to its lowest level in nearly 20 years, the Republicans have swiftly improved their numbers on two key measures: the president’s job approval and the generic vote for Congress.
In terms of job approval, the Real Clear Average has narrowed to -8.9 points for the president, with approximately 44 percent of voters approving of the job he is doing. In particular, the most recent poll used in Real Clear Politics’ calculation, the May 24 Rasmussen Report, finds that nearly half of voters (49 percent) approve of the job President Trump is doing, which happens to be a full 3 percent higher than the 46 percent of the vote he garnered in November 2016.
More troubling for Democratic fortunes in 2018 though is the latest generic ballot for Congress polling data which, according to Reuters, indicates that voters now favor Republicans over Democrats nationally by one point, 38 percent to 37 percent.
Just six months ago in December 2017, the Democrats held a full 13-point lead in the Real Clear Average for Generic Congressional Vote, but today, the Democrat’s lead is less than one-third of that margin at +4.
The party out of power has traditionally scored substantial gains in midterm elections and the Democrats remain in one of the strongest positions they have had in years.
The Democrats only need a net gain of 24 seats to gain control of the House, which, based on previous years, should be an easy task.
In order to understand the implications of the recent tightening of the generic ballot average though, it is important to review the trends that metric followed in the historic midterm years of 1994 and 2010.
In the Gingrich Revolution of 1994, the party out of power, the Republicans, would manage to flip 54 seats in the House and achieve majority leadership for the first time since the Truman administration.
In March 1994, Gallup’s generic ballot tracker favored the minority party, the Republicans, by a slim margin, but within months by June 1994, Gallup’s polling favored the majority Republicans by six points, 50 to 44 percent.
Despite this, the Republicans would steadily make ground and periodically retake the generic ballot advantage in the six months leading up to the November 1994 elections, all the while promoting their effective set of alternative policies, famously titled the “Contract with America,” and eventually win the actual vote by 7.1 points nationally.
Thus, while the minority party would suffer setbacks and trail in the generic ballot from time to time, their persuasive plan for governing, focused on detailed, moderate policy ideas, would compel voters to flip the House by a landslide.
In the six months leading up to the 2010 elections, we observed a similar trend in which the party in power, the Democrats, held a slim, 1-point lead in late May in the Real Clear Average, but the minority party would effectively stem the tide and reclaim a lead by July which they would hold through Election Day 2010.
Once again, it is important to point out that the Republicans were only as successful as they were in 2010, flipping 63 seats, because they presented a compelling and effective alternative to Nancy Pelosi and the Democrat’s leadership at that time, and clearly articulated to voters what they intended to accomplish.
As such, the stakes could not be higher for the Democrats this year. They have a tremendous opportunity to cultivate a Blue wave nationwide, but run the risk of squandering it if they cannot unite behind a moderate platform that is inclusive and will bring voters of all backgrounders back into the party, rather than simply pandering to the loudest voices and most mobilized factions.
