On September 8, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan visited to Russia to discuss bilateral ties between the two countries, as well as the social and political situation in Armenia and most importantly Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. His remarks on the breakaway Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh at the meeting with the Russia-based Armenian businessmen in Moscow proved that new Armenian government keeps speculating peaceful negotiation process and disrespecting international law. Thus, he made the following political mistakes in his speech:
- Karabakh is a part of Armenia and must be annexed to Armenia.
- There will be no concessions in Karabakh conflict settlement
- Any provocation in the conflict zone will have strong response
Firstly, Karabakh has never been an integral part of Armenia throughout the history and its annexation is impossible today and forever. Because Karabakh is a conflict that can change the whole political situation in Eurasia, in essence, the great actors of the conflict will not be satisfied with this approach, at all.
If Armenian government holds a referendum on the annexation of Karabakh region to Armenia tomorrow, it will announce war against Azerbaijan.
Furthermore, there are four resolutions adopted by the United Nations in favor of Azerbaijan in this regard. Organizations such as the OSCE Minsk Group and the Council of Europe have also adopted similar legal acts. Most importantly, Russia, Turkey and Iran, which have borders with both countries in the region, will never agree on this case. It is because, these three regional powers have recently developed their military-political cooperation, and they are planning to create an alternative political and military alliance to NATO in the very near future. In such a situation, these actors do not want to disagree and break allied relations with each others for the sake of Armenia which does not have any political importance.
On the other hand, apart from the three countries, other regional players such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, which have closely relationship with Azerbaijan, will not let Armenia act as it wants.
In addition, no any country including Russia wants to lose its strategic ally Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus and contradict Turkey.
As for concessions on the conflict settlement, it should be stated that Armenia is not a decision-maker in this respect, as an outpost of Russia. It seems Pashinyan has forgotten that there are still Russian military bases in Gyumri, Khankendi and other areas.
Armenian PM also mentioned that they will have strong response in case there is any provocation in the conflict zone. But the only provocateur in the region is Armenian government that violated the territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan since the USSR collapsed, as well as it still disrespects international resolutions on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and keeps violating ceasefire agreement in frontline.
But what stands behind Pashinyan’s destructive remarks on the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiation? It is obvious that Nikol Pashinyan’s statement targets ordinary Armenians for maintaining his personal image. When the official Moscow denied Yerevan’s proposal on the extradition of the ex-Defense Minister of Armenia, Mikhael Harutyunyan and his clashes with a group of Armenian businessmen in Moscow, accusing him of damaging the country’s investment climate, Pashinyan feared for his reputation in his home country. According to Armenian state statistics, in the second trimester of 2018, foreign direct investment declined by 43.5 percent over the same period the year before, as Pashinyan took office as Prime Minister of Armenia.
Nijat Ismayilov
