“The Azerbaijani community of Nagorno-Karabakh can participate in negotiations. This will also mean the return of the Azerbaijani community to Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity,” Sergei Markov, well-known political analyst, director of the Russian Institute of Political Studies, told ONA.
Talking about the upcoming meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders in Vienna, he said the meeting has good prospects.
“Like many others, we also hope there will be progress in the negotiations at that meeting and the sides will announce readiness for reciprocal compromises. In reality, reciprocal compromises are already reflected in the Madrid principles. This means the resolution of the conflict in line with the Kazan formula. This formula is known to everyone,” he said.
“Firstly, territories should be freed from occupation, IDPs should return to their lands, the economic blockade on Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh should be removed. After this, talks on the possible status of Nagorno-Karabakh have to be started. There is a chance for all this to happen,” S. Markov added.
He added that Nikol Pashinyan wants to realize an economic revolution in Armenia.
“For this, N. Pashinyan needs to remove the economic blockade on Armenia. Therefore, Armenia should make compromises to Azerbaijan in matters related to lands – it should give back the occupied territories,” added S. Markov.
“I think the Armenian PM is ready for this. On the other hand, he is also afraid of taking this step. He thinks that he may be removed from the political arena and become a target of the Armenian radicals. However, the Armenian leader is not so far politically courageous to take such a step. Taking into account that this is the first official meeting, there is a possibility that no agreement will be achieved at the meeting on the matters I mentioned,” he said.
S. Markov noted that in all cases the meeting will take place in Vienna.
“Sooner or later, N. Pashinyan will somehow find an argument not to lose his authority and to make a big historic compromise. Why is N. Pashinyan insisting on the participation of the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh in the talks? I believe he is trying to show that in the eyes of the people of Armenia, the political responsibility on the compromises to be made to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is shared with the Armenian community,” he said.
“However, in this case, it will be necessary to involve the Azerbaijani community of Nagorno-Karabakh in the talks. If all this don’t happen, that is, the Vienna talks don’t yield any results, there is a great possibility for repetition of a controlled version of the four-day April 2016 war. If this possibility comes true, the prime minister may explain the real situation around the Karabakh talks to the Armenian public. He may say that everyone, including international mediators, is calling on Armenia to make compromises,” added S. Markov.