Second Revolution in Sudan - New Civil War? Africa Spring? | Eurasia Diary -

26 June, Wednesday

Second Revolution in Sudan - New Civil War? Africa Spring?

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Political events in recent days have derived the attention of the international community on Sudan, one of the countries rich in natural resources of East Africa. Omar al-Bashir, who has been in power for over 30 years, steady demonstration and opposition movement led to the military's intervention. As a result, on April 11, armed forces carried out a state coup, led by Defense Minister Awad bin Auf, and Omar al-Bashir was arrested.

But this did not put an end to protests in Sudan, but on the contrary, people's protests became even more violent. The coup in Sudan was actually a people's dream. Opposition forces, which have been holding protests in various parts of the country for months, often expressed their desire for a coup in front of the Ministry of Defense in the form of slogans. The people called the army. Before the overthrow of the army, the main purpose of the people was to overthrow Bashir. Whatever the people before the coup said, "Bashir is overthrown", the arrival of Avad ibn Auf after the coup made the people even more frustrating. Citizens were not satisfied with the overthrow of Bashir, and they started saying the second one.

The main reason for the former Defense Minister Auf in the nation was that he had been involved in the Darfur genocide years ago and was seen as one of the key followers of Bashar. Therefore, the protests against Auf, the head of the military council that overthrew Bashar rule, began. Thousands of Syrians continued their protests in capital Khartoum in the evening, despite the announcement of a state of emergency in the country and banning citizens from entering the streets after 19:00. The main opposition organizations in the country issued a joint statement saying that the army should quickly ensure that the country should go to the polls and transfer power to civilian politicians and politician parties.

After the coup, all these events have created greatness in the army. The main reason for the intervention of the army in political processes was the aggravation of the events and the Prevention of civil confrontation. But now the people's protest Arrows turned into Auf, the leader of the army and the coup. This situation worried other generals in the army, especially former President Al-Bashar al-Burhan, who read the appeal on the overthrow of power. Members of the Military College demanded the resignation of Auf. Auf's resistance was no longer meaningful. The army, which he led for years, now demanded his resignation. As a result, Auf resigned no later than 24 hours after the coup. Thus, the second coup took place in Sudan. The first coup resulted in the systematic overthrow of Bashir by the army, and the second coup resulted in the resignation of Auf, taking into account the civil dissatisfaction of the generals who founded the Military Council.

The second coup in Sudan once again showed that great powers are playing geopolitical games over Sudan. Here are the critical interests of the US, China, and Russia. The US is considered the main state “independent” of South Sudan. The border with South Sudan and Sudan The United States, which has its closest "partners" in Egypt, is now trying to implement that plan in Sudan. Of course, the purpose of the US is obvious. Not to allow Sudan to become China's "economic space." However, the United States recognizes the criticality of the situation in Sudan. He does not want to repeat the bad mistakes he has left in Libya and Syria. Therefore, it does not resort to radical steps to overthrow the policy of contravention. Follows the "smooth transition" scenario. In accordance with this scenario, the government is turning to power as a result of the protests of the army, and the army wants to change the revolutionary leader of the army and the army relies on it. The current political stagnation in Sudan gives the reason to say that the legitimate political army of the army strives to serve the interests of the people and to gain the support of the people. Why? Because the US is afraid of the massacre of civilians in Syria in Libya, and this is contrary to its interests. The goal of the United States is merely to create a new influential circle in Africa and to overthrow the governments who closely cooperate with China and Russia through democratic revolutions and soft coups, just as in the Arab Spring. This is the second part of Trump's "Chinese war" strategy. (Note that, a Chinese pipeline has invested the largest investment in the African region on a road project and has recently become the main buyer of African oil).

Specialist for Near and Middle Eastern Policy noting that a new spring began in Africa, Ismail Numan Telci recalled that what happened in Muslim Africa, especially in Libya, Algeria, and Sudan, reminds those who took part in the formation of the Arab Spring in 2010. The same scenario and the same stories. Therefore, I think that the popular movements and coups in Algeria and Sudan can also spread to other African countries. The reason for this is that most of the leaders here have been in power for more than 20 years and that the African region has become a battlefield for the great powers in the new geopolitical tendency. Apparently, regional changes here are inevitable. The states in this region will soon become democratically. However, it should be noted that the forces with regional interests prevent democratic changes as clearly seen in Sudan. The people are not allowed to form a government with the protests and actions, or to interfere with the army, or to interfere with other states. "

This is the reason why Saudi Arabia and the UAE have an active policy in the region to prevent the change of the status quo. In particular, Saudi Arabia strives to bring its political groups closer to itself (and, of course, its ally, the United States), by funding the General Week in Libya. Bigger players from Saudi, US, Russia, and China. Previously, Africa was merely a part of the interests of the United States and the West. Now, the influence of China and Russia on this region is intensifying. That is why Africa has become a geopolitical space of conflict, and in this case, "spring in Africa" is an inevitable ending.


Written by Nejat Ismayilov

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