In the video al-Baghdadi said that the war between Christians and Muslims is a long fight. Touching upon ISIS’s defeat in Baghouz, he said “Even though we lost, every one saw Christians’ bad intentions and ferocity against Muslims.”

Baghadi’s call on fighters and statements after the terrorist attack in Sri Lanka where about 250 were killed have created a shocking effect on the international scene. Because many well-known media outlets including “The Guardian” reported that al-Baghdadi had been heavily wounded or had been killed.

We face two dangerous situations when we analyze his statements in the video:

In his previous videos, al-Baghdadi used to name more specific countries, to blame for oppressing Muslims and to call Muslims to fight against this oppression. However, he did not name a concrete country in this video. He just said “Christians.” At the same time he approved his organization was defeated in the first period of fights. We can conclude that he pointed that he just lost the battle again Christians, became a sufferer and the need to unite all Muslims against Christian oppression. He named many religious orders including Shiite the ideology of “unbelievers”, threatening adherents with death in previous videos, this time Baghdadi praised the fighters of terrorist attack in Sri Lanka. Putting together this, we can say that the ISIS leader who has appeared on the broadcast after long years declares the beginning of a new war and calls Muslims to fight. The war at stake is a muslim-christian war. So, the new enemy for ISIS is Christians, and new tactic is a guerilla war. It seems, ISIS will not follow the dream of establishing Caliphate in Syria and Iraq. It will realize unexpected attacks like those of in Sri Lanka with a radical Islamic ideology.

Another important point taking our attention in video is the report on “Caucasian region” which he views. Of course we do not have concrete information about the content of this report. We don’t know whether “Caucasus region” means South or North Caucasus. However, it is an obvious fact that a lot of Christians live in Caucasus, especially in the South Caucasus. If ISIS declared Christians as a new enemy and had already established its own “Caucasus region”, most of its attacks will take place in the South Caucasus where two Christian countries. But at the same time, the term "Caucasus region" can be used not a geographical but a national term. Thus, there is information that the Azerbaijani emirate operated a few years ago on the ISIS-controlled lands. The reason why this territory was called the Azerbaijani emirate was the fact that most of the people living there and the head of it were Azerbaijanis. That is, the “Caucasus region” may have been considered as a part of the ISIS’s region and a territory that the fighters from the Caucasus living. But this is a minor possibility. Because the ISIS leader clearly stated in the video, he lost and the first phase of the war was over. Therefore, Baghdadi's report is probably about "passive" ISIS fighters who are living in the Caucasus region and waiting a "fatwa" from ISIS leader.
Passive terrorism has been steadily rising since 2005 in areas such as Central Asia, the North Caucasus, and the North Caucasus where the majority of Muslims live. What does passive terrorism mean?

Passive terrorism is a concept that applies the ideology of a particular terrorist organization and people who are constantly ready to follow the instructions of the leaders of the organization. Passive terrorists mostly do not differentiate from civilians, ordinary citizens. The main point distinguishing them is their ideological views. They often meet, work together, trade, and fulfill their ideological rituals, with fellows who have same ideas with them. In Azerbaijan, passive terrorism show itself more in religious radicalism. ISID and Hezbollah terror organizations have serious social bases in Azerbaijan and the Caucasus region. There are hundreds of people in Azerbaijan who actively propagandize Hezbollah and ISID in social networks. According to the concept of passive terrorism, these people are also passive terrorists. Then the essence of the Caucasus region report in Baghdad's hand is probably related to this.

By the way, Hezbollah has increased its activity in Azerbaijan and the region. According to RIA Novosti, US Department of State Anti-Terrorism Coordinator Nathan Sayles told reporters on April 23 at a briefing.

There is no need to comment on the danger of passive terrorism. The main danger is that it is impossible to identify passive terrorists in advance and to include them in terrorist lists. As in Sri Lanka case, these people are ordinary citizens and wait for an order. When order comes, they carry out it, even at the expense of their lives. Because religious or political ideological arguments link these people to the organization which they are unofficially affiliated with.

Thus, this video and the ISIS’s claim of undertaking the terrorist attack in Sri Lanka point to the emergence of a new type of terrorism in the world. People who killed about 50 Muslims in the mosque in New Zealand and ISID which bombed churches in Sri Lanka, operates on the same targets. The target is to incite the war between religions. And those who used Baghdadi in the Arabian Peninsula just a few years ago, today they demand active actions against Christians not just regionally, but also globally.
ISIS’s claims of undertaking terror actions in Sri Lanka and Baghdad's statements changed attention of the world community to "Islamic terrorism" again. According to Akif Hasanov, a former DTK podpolkovnik, it is wrong to relate terrorism to any ethnic or religious group. The terrorist attack is an attempt of the powerless to weaken desperately the powerful. If you pay attention, "Islamic terrorism" has become widespread after military operations carried out by the "democratic regimes" in the Middle East and other Muslim countries. As a result of these activities, millions of people were killed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen and were driven out of their homes, many of whom lost their loved ones.

Since war and "terrorism" are essentially profitable businesses, there are businessmen who use the mood of these masses. The so-called "Islamic terror" has nothing to do with Islam or its Wahabi and other sects. Most of the absolute majority of terrorists has no idea of true Islam and blindly believe in the explanations made by the fake prophets because these explanations urge their desire to revenge and kill. By the way, Europe is already in disorder with this type of terrorism - mosques and refugee camps are still burned. The most dangerous thing is that terrorism and local wars bring huge profits to their leaders. "

Finally, it should be noted that after the recent video of al-Baghdadi, the law enforcement agencies in the Caucasus region, including Azerbaijan, should be more attentive and should further deepen the fight against terrorism. With passive terrorism, it is more appropriate to fight ideological and psychological methods.

Nicat Ismayilov

Translated from Azerbaijani Islam Mammadov