Yemen crisis - Decisive conflict for Saudi regime | Eurasia Diary - ednews.net

27 November, Friday


Yemen crisis - Decisive conflict for Saudi regime

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Yemen conflict is worsening by following dire humanitarion crisis since the start of the conflict in 2015. The pandemic offered an opportunity for illegal activities in the gray zones. Yemen became one of the victims of global inattention.

The Yemeni crisis is not the main agenda for the world powers and now the spread of pandemics became more disastrous implications for the Yemeni people, the political expert on the Middle East, award-winning journalist Hugh Miles told EDNews.net.

In late April, one of the separatist groups in southern Yemen, The Aden-based Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared self-rule.

“The STC is one of many separatist groups in southern Yemen. It has declared “self-rule” - but not independence - over the former territory of the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen.”

Hugh Miles believes that this move could threaten further to destabilize southern Yemen by heightening the risk of conflict in the area and making it significantly more difficult to address an already dire humanitarian situation.

The political expert thinks that STC’s vision is not clear currently. He noted that the STC has received financial and diplomatic support from the UAE in the past and even the president of the STC made the self-rule announcement from Abu Dhabi.

“However since withdrawing from Yemen last year and handing responsibility for its activities to Saudi Arabia, the UAE has reduced its support for the STC and the only official Emirati response to the STC announcement so far said that the Riyadh Agreement should be implemented and that no party should take unilateral action.” 

Miles stressed that the STC has said that it is willing to return to the Riyadh Agreement if the government fulfills its conditions suggesting some political wiggle room in achieving its goals.

The Yemeni crisis became a proxy war between Iran and the coalition of the Gulf States such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The contradictions followed military hostilities between belligerent sides since 2015. However the associated drop in oil prices puts more pressure on Saudi Arabia to try and find a way to end the war, Miles said. UAE also left the coalition stage last year. The “compromise” seems defeat for Saudi Arabia.

“The war is a strategic, military, PR, and financial disaster for the Saudis and they have wanted to find a way out for years. However, the Houthis will not let Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) do this without meeting certain conditions - such as admitting defeat and agreeing to reparations.”

Miles considers that MBS, the architect of the failed war, cannot bring himself to do this yet and so the war will continue to roll for the near future despite the humanitarian cost.

The scenery for the end of the conflicts set out many variants.

“The likely outcome of the war is either capitulation by the coalition and agreeing to the Houthi conditions; or the implosion of the Saudi regime, either directly as a result of the war e.g. the Houthis overrun major Saudi conurbations leading to fighting in the streets starting uprisings across the country, or for another reason indirectly related to the war e.g. the Saudis run out of money or there is an internal coup against MBS leading to a collapse of the regime,” the political expert High Miles concluded.

Hugh Miles is an award-winning freelance journalist and author, a presenter, producer and consultant specialising in the Middle East. He is also editor of Arab Digest.

He was born in Jedda, Saudi Arabia in 1977. Miles was educated in Libya, at the Dragon School, Oxford, and at Eton. He studied Arabic at Pembroke College, Oxford University, and English Literature at Trinity College, Dublin. During a one-year student exchange programme with the Sorbonne University in Paris, Miles worked as the Nightlife Editor for Time Out Paris, also reviewing restaurants and shops. His work included sampling every crêpe house in Paris.

Hugh Miles is the author of two books: "Al Jazeera: How Arab TV News Challenged the World", "Playing Cards in Cairo"

 

By Ulvi Ahmedli

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