On 12 July, Armenia launched provocative attacks on the border with Azerbaijan. The attacks turned into armed clashes between two sides which left several deaths of servicemen.

The armed confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia affects the security of South Caucasus. Georgian political analyst Gela Vasadze explained the probable effects of the conflict on Georgia to EDNews.net.

- How does Georgia assess the latest armed confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

- Unfortunately, the interest of Georgian society in the escalation of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia is at a rather low level. It is understandable, the country is in a severe economic crisis, caused, among other things, by a pandemic. To this is added a political crisis. Nevertheless, ordinary citizens, especially representatives of the Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of Georgia, are closely following and very interested in what is happening. Our center of strategic analysis, because of its capabilities, is trying to eliminate the shortage of information that really exists. So in the program of the Mtavari TV channel a very detailed analysis of the situation was given by the founder of the center, Nodar Kharshiladze, I also took part in the “Morning Talks” program of the Georgian edition of Radio Liberty, still glad experts gave their comments, but this is clearly not enough. There is a shortage of information, and conversations among the townsfolk come down to phrases - oh, war again, such a pity for people.

Tbilisi’s official position is also understandable - concern, calls for restraint and the whole set of diplomatic phrases that are usually spoken in such a situation.

- How does the conflict between the two countries affect and concern Georgia?

- Let’s  speak about the conditions of war is going on between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which began back in the late eighties. And the fact that this conflict having low intensity does not mean at all that it does not pose threats and risks for the entire region and, first of all, for Georgia.

The main threats and risks can be listed. The main one is the threat of conflict within Georgia, between representatives of the Azerbaijani and Armenian communities. I would not overestimate the level of this threat, thank God the citizens of Georgia of Azerbaijani and Armenian descent are normal and even good to each other. But it is also impossible to underestimate the possibility of a negative option, since both the Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of Georgia are connected with Azerbaijan and Armenia both psychologically and often economically. And they are very worried about what is happening. So in this matter we need to be especially careful and delicate.

The next clear threat is the threat of even greater strengthening of Russia in the region. We understand perfectly well that each such ignition strengthens Moscow, which once again appears as an arbiter. Not to mention extreme options, for example, about the possible demand for military transit from Russia, which may well be another reason for the relapse of Russian aggression. However, they will always find a reason if they want.

And thirdly, the tension in the region greatly drops its investment attractiveness in general and all the countries that are part of it, and therefore Georgia. Today, when investments have become even more important than they were before the pandemic, this issue is vital.

- Georgia also suffers from occupation and lost territories. Do you think Russia has interests regarding provocations in the South Caucasus?

- Of course, Russia had, has and will have its own interests in the Caucasus, but it would be a mistake to assume that Russia is interested in Azerbaijan, Armenia or Georgia. Moscow needs the whole region, and to achieve this goal, the Russian government uses all the tools, including the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. That is why to say that the end of this war is possible as long as Russia plays the main role would be extremely naive.

As I said above, each such escalation strengthens Russia's position in the region as a whole. This is a fact, regardless of whether such an escalation was planned in the Kremlin, or whether it happened spontaneously. The ultimate goal of Russia in this conflict is the implementation of the so-called Lavrov’s plan, that is the deployment of Russian troops under the flag of “peacekeepers” along the entire front line between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And this means the deployment of Russian troops not only in Karabakh, but also in the north near the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and, most importantly, in Nakhichevan.

Ulvi Ahmedli