Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that a large gas field had been discovered in the Black Sea. He noted that this is the biggest discovery in the gas field in Turkey.
The discovery and exploitation of this field, as well as its impact on the Turkish economy, has become a major topic of discussion on the world agenda. There are different approaches to these discussions. Many say there are more political motives than economic gain, but others say it will open up new economic opportunities.
Energy expert Ilham Shaban told Eurasia Diary about the importance of Turkey's new gas field discovered in the Black Sea.
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Ilham Shaban said it was wrong to reduce the importance of the field by comparison to the volume of the field with Turkey's annual consumption.
"Turkey's annual gas consumption is estimated at about 50 billion cubic meters, and the volume of the newly discovered field is estimated at 320 billion. However, this does not mean that the field will run off in a short time, for example, in 7 years."
He believes that the volume of gas produced during the operation of the field will be determined in accordance with the principle of rivalry in the domestic market.
"Turkey's gas production from this field may be about 7-8 billion cubic meters. It should not be forgotten that the gas supply in Turkey is organized in the European style. Thus, there is internal rivalry in Turkey, and gas demands are provided by imports from about 10 countries.”
The expert believes that the demand for gas in Turkey is not expected to increase in the coming years.
"Production from the new gas field will begin in about 5 years. During this period, Turkey will put into operation both a nuclear power plant and the use of alternative energy. However, I do not think that Turkey's gas consumption will differ much from the current figures in the coming years."
The commissioning of the gas field requires some funding, which is one of the interesting questions. Ilham Shaban believes that the problem is very unlikely.
"If Azerbaijan, a country with less economic potential than Turkey, has been able to implement a $ 25 billion gas project, it is not right to consider the financial factor as a problem in Turkey's commissioning of this field."
Ilham Shaban does not rule out that Azerbaijan will invest if there are appropriate proposals.
"For example, Gazprom sells 4 billion m3 of gas to the Turkish state company BOTAS. The other share of sales is carried out by companies existing in the market. They purchase from Gazprom and sell in the domestic market. Thus, companies within Turkey are free to trade in gas. This means that the natural gas market in Turkey is regulated not only by the state but also by private companies.
He noted that the positive consequences of domestic rivalry also played an important role in changing prices.
"Gazprom used to sell gas at $ 400 per thousand cubic meters, but now it offers about $ 150. One of the main reasons for SOCAR's dominance in the Turkish market is that it offers reasonable prices to the market."
According to energy expert Ilham Shaban, the new gas field is important for the Turkish economy and will not hinder future gas pipeline projects, but will create new competition in the domestic market.
