Speaking about the Tovuz provocation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Trud newspaper that Armenia's decision to restore the old border checkpoint, located 15 kilometers from Azerbaijan's export pipelines, had unexpected consequences. On the other hand, he invited his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov to pay an official visit to Russia. Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia, which transported about 400,000 tons of weapons to Armenia, expressed a different position with a new statement. But what has changed over time?
Political analyst Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas Research Center, said to Eurasia Diary that we should not be deceived by Lavrov's statement.
"Lavrov is still pursuing a tricky policy as if he is speaking in our favor. During the April 2016 war, he tried to deceive us into stopping the war and launching a phased plan. Lavrov's plan was put forward, which I did not believe at the time. Nothing has changed in 4 years, the occupation continues. They try to distract us from the main goal with positive thoughts. Russia has no intention of ending the occupation and does not want Armenia to accept a phased solution as they were doing before.”
According to Shahinoglu, Russia is concerned about the enhancement of Azerbaijani-Turkish political and military cooperation.
“That is why Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov was invited to Moscow. Because Jeyhun Bayramov firstly visited Ankara. Mutual visits of Azerbaijani and Turkish defense ministers took place. Now, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu is coming to Baku to keep up with Turkey. The point is that Russia does not give up supporting Armenia. Tons of military cargo being transported. President Ilham Aliyev also made this clear to Putin. Russia, as a mediator, supports the aggressor. "
The political analyst believes that in such a situation, of course, Azerbaijan's main strategic ally should be Turkey. These issues should also be brought to the attention of Shoigu in Baku.
"President Ilham Aliyev noted that Azerbaijan will purchase military equipment from Turkey. Moscow is also concerned about this. We have always bought the main military equipment from Russia. This year we did not receive anything, we stopped the process. Our opinion is already firm. Negotiations are no longer give results. President Ilham Aliyev also emphasized it. We must rely on cooperation with Turkey in resolving this issue."
The expert said that it is difficult to say whether any clashes in the Karabakh conflict are expected by the end of the year.
"At the beginning of 2016, no one could have predicted that there would be a war in April, but it happened. In July of this year, it was difficult to predict that the border clash would become large-scale and even turn into a war. Anything can happen by the end of the year. Yesterday, the enemy tried to sabotage, the reconnaissance team was captured. If there had been a shootout with the reconnaissance group for several hours, it could have led to a serious clash. A small spark can ignite a war. In fact, we need to strike hard at the enemy as soon as possible."