What's going on in south Caucasus region?

Analytics 15:15 07.09.2020

Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be intensively arming Armenia against the Republic of Azerbaijan, with massive Russian weapons deliveries, threatening a possible new war in the South Caucasus.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s, all former Soviet satellite-republics, including Azerbaijan and Armenia, broke away from Moscow and gained independence.

Russian political leaders, especially its current president Vladimir Putin, haven't hidden their regret for the dissolution of the USSR. Putin deplored the collapse of the Soviet Union as, "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" [of the 20th century].

Along with its neo-imperialistic "near abroad" concept, referring to the newly independent republics that emerged after the Soviet Union's dissolution, Russia still considers the South Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, its exclusive influence zone.

In the absence of a proactive European Union and US leadership in the Caucasus, Russia has become increasingly aggressive in the region, chiefly concerning the Armenia-Azerbaijan long-standing conflict.

The conflict began in the early 1990s when Armenia, aided by Russia's military, invaded, and during which ethnically cleansed Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven adjacent districts. One million local Azerbaijani civilians were forced to flee their ancestral lands, to become internally displaced people inside Azerbaijan.

Despite four UN Security Council resolutions condemning Armenian's occupation and demanding all of the Armenian troops' immediate withdrawal from Azerbaijan's occupied lands, Armenia's belligerence continues. Under military occupation, Armenia illegally holds around 20% of Azerbaijan's sovereign territory while the forcibly displaced Azerbaijanis hopefully wait for Armenia's greenlight to allow them to return to their homes.

Since Russia's military and financial aid to Armenia helped carry out the invasion to Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan being the first South Caucasus country to have kicked the Russian military forces out of its territory, one can say, this was the "price" Azerbaijan paid for gaining independence.

In the years after Armenia's invasion, though struggling with Armenia's illegal occupation of its territory and carrying out its commitment to see to the internally displaced Nagorno-Karabakh Azerbaijanis welfare, the Republic of Azerbaijan has become the South Caucasus region largest economy and the West's most important ally and partner. Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan refused to be part of any Russia-led military-economic union.

Over the last 30 years, Russia has continued to arm Armenia. Russia's military base in Armenia is among its largest in the world. Russia owns 80% of Armenia's economy and its military forces guard Armenia's borders and airspace. Armenia is also a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-led anti-NATO military block and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Several strategic oil and gas pipelines, most essential to Azerbaijan's sovereignty and economy, as well as to Europe and the United States pass through Tovuz district. The South Caucasus natural gas Pipeline (SCP), a key part of the Southern EU Energy Corridor, passing through Tovuz, Georgia, Turkey and Southern Europe routes, which is due to become operational in few months, will deliver Azerbaijani gas to European markets via Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).

Bypassing both Russia and Iran, this pipeline will deliver non-Russian-non-Iranian natural gas directly to Europe's consumers' market, helping reduce Europe's dependency on Russian gas and improving the continent's energy supply sources' diversification.

Seeking to maintain energy deliveries control to Europe via its own networks, Russia fiercely opposes the SCP project. Therefore, it is no coincidence that Armenia's latest military adventure against Azerbaijan's vital Tovuz district took place a few months prior to this strategic gas pipeline's completion.

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, asked Putin to clarify the nature of the shipments to Armenia, considering that Moscow is one of the OSCE Minsk Group's three co-chairs, tasked with resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict – not aggravating it.

Almost daily a Russian Ilyushin Il-76 strategic airlifter, flying over the Caspian Sea and via Iran, lands in the Armenian capital of Yerevan with assorted Russian weapons. Is it becoming obvious that Russia is preparing Armenia for a fight with Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijan claims that Armenia sides with Russia in Syria, actively participates in Syria's conflict, and is also dealing with the "black trade" weapons' purchase from Syria.

Iran, always suspicious of Azerbaijan's secular governance and the country's being US and Israel strategic partner is a willing participant in this dangerous energy gambit adventure in the Caucasus.

The latest developments in the South Caucasus, especially Russia's neo-imperialist policies and arms deliveries are alarming. Considering Azerbaijan's geostrategic and geo-economic importance and its significant role in connecting Central Asia with the West, the United States and Europe should be alarmed by Russia's continuing weapons shipments to Armenia.

Without some sort of diplomatic intervention, unrest may erupt in the South Caucasus region from which only Russia can benefit.

Article is written by Nurit Greenger

This article is originally published in Israel Hayom

This is how Rahman Mustafayev exposed the representation of Armenia in ICJ - VIDEO

News line

Kenyan military helicopter crashes, five soldiers killed, police say
Kenyan military helicopter crashes, five soldiers killed, police say
23:45 18.04.2024
Greek PM Mitsotakis to meet Erdogan on May 13 in Ankara
22:55 18.04.2024
Guterres: ‘The Middle East is on a knife-edge’
Guterres: ‘The Middle East is on a knife-edge’
22:33 18.04.2024
CBA chairman discusses importance of COP29 in long-term development of global economy in Washington
22:00 18.04.2024
US Ambassador Marks Visit to Liberated Territories of Aghdam -PHOTOS
21:30 18.04.2024
Georgian State Minister for Reconciliation meets US Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations
Georgian State Minister for Reconciliation meets US Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations
21:21 18.04.2024
US and UK imposed fresh sanctions on Iran
20:43 18.04.2024
A Race Against Time: Can SDGs Goals Transform Our World by 2030? - ANALYSIS
20:18 18.04.2024
Japan to start 5th ocean discharge of Fukushima nuclear
19:30 18.04.2024
What does the departure of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh mean? - Georgian pundit talks on Ednews
19:02 18.04.2024
EU made it's final decision on imposing sanctions on Iran following attack on Israel
18:42 18.04.2024
The new law in Italy may increase pressure on women
The new law in Italy may increase pressure on women
18:00 18.04.2024
EU Summit Stresses Importance of Stable Relations with Türkiye and Cyprus
EU Summit Stresses Importance of Stable Relations with Türkiye and Cyprus
17:48 18.04.2024
Caspian Sea Desalination Project: A Promising Solution for Water Security - OPINION
17:30 18.04.2024
Tesla Eyes $2-3 Billion Investment in India Amid Market Challenges
Tesla Eyes $2-3 Billion Investment in India Amid Market Challenges
17:21 18.04.2024
The EU will treat the violation of sanctions as a "judicial crime"
17:10 18.04.2024
European Commission to earmark €15M assistance to Armenia
European Commission to earmark €15M assistance to Armenia
16:55 18.04.2024
Was the presence of peacekeepers a threat to Azerbaijan? - OPINION
16:48 18.04.2024
Russia's presence in the South Caucasus is over - Russian Pundit
16:40 18.04.2024
Armenia PM: Turkish army is 50 meters away from Margara village houses, our goal is to get such situation
Armenia PM: Turkish army is 50 meters away from Margara village houses, our goal is to get such situation
16:31 18.04.2024
Iran threatens to attack Israel's nuclear facilities
16:05 18.04.2024
Samuel Wordsworth: Armenian claims of ethnic cleansing remain unfounded - VİDEO
15:43 18.04.2024
Channel for sale of human organs identified in Kyrgyzstan
Channel for sale of human organs identified in Kyrgyzstan
15:30 18.04.2024
This is how Rahman Mustafayev exposed the representation of Armenia in ICJ - VIDEO
15:17 18.04.2024
Azerbaijani NGOs adress open letter to Norwegian Nobel Committee regarding Ruben Vardanyan
15:02 18.04.2024
Russian MFA: West continues to militarize South Caucasus
14:46 18.04.2024
Umud Mirzayev: 'I have been gradually waiting for the Russian peacekeepers to leave Karabakh'
14:32 18.04.2024
Parliaments of Azerbaijan and New Caledonia ink memorandum of cooperation
Parliaments of Azerbaijan and New Caledonia ink memorandum of cooperation
14:17 18.04.2024
Azerbaijan weather forecast for April 19
Azerbaijan weather forecast for April 19
14:01 18.04.2024
Foreign minister of Ukraine met with Anthony Blinken
13:48 18.04.2024
Azerbaijan invited Swedish Prime Minister to COP29
13:28 18.04.2024
Withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Azerbaijan continues
13:05 18.04.2024
Pashinyan urges Armenian villagers to find inspiration, not disturbance, in their proximity to Azerbaijan
12:40 18.04.2024
Zelenskyy calls on Congress to speed up making decision on aid package to Ukraine
12:19 18.04.2024
Security measures strengthened in Georgian Parliament
Security measures strengthened in Georgian Parliament
11:58 18.04.2024
Anar Akhundov appointed Azerbaijan's new deputy minister of economy
11:39 18.04.2024
Ukrainian military leader: ‘We dream of victory parade in Moscow’
11:20 18.04.2024
Ombudsman: Some residents were burned alive in massacres in Bashlibel
11:05 18.04.2024
US State Department comments on withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh
10:40 18.04.2024
Football lawmakers to trial major laws which goalkeepers will hate
Football lawmakers to trial major laws which goalkeepers will hate
10:30 18.04.2024
Hamısı