Azerbaijan army, which has launched a counterattack in the morning of September 27, has gained serious superiority in a very short period of time, has destroyed a large number of military forces and equipment, and has managed to liberate some occupied settlements and strategic heights from enemy. Azerbaijan’s military superiority on the front in a very short time stems from a number of factors:
1. Psychological dominance and blocking of fake information. Psychological factor is considered as one of the most important factors during the war. It is possible to cite facts from the human history in which moral and psychological training of army has played essential role in war, not the superiority of military force and equipment. It is useless to arm the troops without moral and psychological training with even the most modern weapons. In modern wars, considering the moral and psychological factors is a very important condition for success in the battle. Only an army with a high moral and psychological condition is able to perform successfully the assigned combat missions.
The liberation of Jabrayil and some villages, Suqovushan and a number of settlements of Fuzuli from occupation caused great enthusiasm in our country and army and dealt serious blow to the moral and psychological condition of enemy.
Enemy that is unwilling to reconcile with the defeat on the front line, trying to realize its ugly plans through the information war. They are trying to cover up information about the liberation of the territories by the Azerbaijani Army from the Armenian society, calling for the incitement of separatism among national minorities in order to create a "fifth column" in our country.
Vagharshak Harutyunyan, Pashinyan's chief adviser on defence issues, threatens to create political chaos and agitation by firing at cities of Azerbaijan, as well as oil and gas pipelines.
In modern times, wars are performed not only on the battlefield but also in the media. Having a powerful information weapon means having an advantage over an opponent. It is mainly carried out by influencing the enemy's information technology and people's minds. The aim is to destabilize the political situation in the country by influencing people's minds through fake information. In this regard, the enemy is trying to benefit the fake information through social networks. The enemy country has opened fake profiles, made numerous appeals to our citizens, and provided them with disinformation and psychological influence. Restricting the use of social networks to inhibit the destructive effects of threats in the course of ongoing military operations serves in favour of ensuring the information security of our country.
2. The hegemony of UAV on the battlefield. Modern wars are characterized as contactless confrontations. This concept is related to the "revolution in military affairs." Modern technology has radically changed military skills and operational conditions, and enriched the means of its conduct. The application of new technologies in the military allows you to more effectively manage all areas of military management and achieve significant results in a very short time. Modern weapons in the arsenal of the Azerbaijani army, especially UAVs, have capability to breake the enemy’s resistance on the front and providing military superiority over it. The Hermes 900 and Harop anti-aircraft missiles used by the Azerbaijani army in the ongoing military operations, play significant role in the destruction of the enemy's strategic military facilities, fortifications, live and armoured vehicles.
Undoubtedly, the military-industrial ambitions of each country are measured by the amount of defence spending. 3 billion 853.6 million manat (about $ 2.3 billion) of Azerbaijan's 2020 state budget will be allocated on defence and national security. This is 666 million manat or 20.9 percent more than the allocated budget in 2019 and allows buying the most advanced weapon systems. For comparison, the military expenditures of neighbour Georgia are about 510 million manat. This is about 6 times less than Azerbaijan. Armenia's military spending is nearly 1 billion 71 million manat ($ 631.5 million). This is approximately 3 times less than in Azerbaijan. This was stated in the report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) dated March 9, 2020. Last year, Armenia's defence expenditures was about 629 $ Million. As can be seen from the statistics, this year's increase in defence expenditures of the occupying country is very small compared to last year. According to SIPRI, Armenia spends 4.9 percent of GDP on military purposes. In terms of the ratio of military spending to GDP, Armenia ranks sixth among all countries in the world.
According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the allocation of 15.3 percent (about 4 billion manat) of budget expenditures to defence and national security for next year has been already planned.
3. Neutralization of external forces. The strengthening of Turkey’s role in the region and influence is our country's interest. On the other hand, the strengthening of the alliance between Turkey and Russia will certainly affect the geopolitical situation of the South Caucasus. In this regard, the current reinforcement of the Turkish-Russian alliance in Syria and Libya to extend to the South Caucasus does not coincide with the interests of Armenia. Turkey's cold relations with the United States over the acquisition of S-400 missile systems as well as with France and Greece over the distribution of rich energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean have prompted it to develop relations with Russia. Russia also uses the Turkish factor to prevent its rivals in the EU and NATO from coming together.
The strengthening of relations between Russia and Turkey also benefits Iran in some ways. On way, Turkey operates under the influence of the United States and NATO, and on another war Turkey pursues its independent policy. It is known that Turkey, Russia and Iran are working more effectively in resolving the Syrian crisis. In particular, US plans for Kurdish terrorists in Iraq and Syria are pushing Iran and Turkey to work together.
It is certain to say that Azerbaijan is the closest and the most reliable partner with all three countries. As we have strong brotherhood with Turkey, we try to refrain from indicating the double-standard policy to Russia. While there are no serious problems in any areas of our cooperation with Moscow, we also try to refrain from making serious mistakes in our relations with Iran. Even 10-15 years ago, Azerbaijan did not allow military operations against Iran from its territory.
These facts have led to increase confidence to our country not only in the region but also in the international arena. Azerbaijan is a place of peace-loving policy, obeying all the rules of conventional war. It refrains from targeting objects and civilians, and supports providing legal guarantees for local Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani citizens.
The success of our diplomacy can be noticed in the military operations that started on September 27. Turkish officials unequivocally voiced their support for Azerbaijan and welcomed military assistance to our country. Russia has promised that it will not interfere in the internal affairs of its neighbours, while Iran has said it supports Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. As for the forces outside the region, such as the United States and France, their influence on the processes in the region is insignificant. The military-political situation in the South Caucasus is in favour of our state, and at this point, we must make more opportunities to ensure the sovereignty of our country in the occupied territories.
Zafar Najafov
Expert on international relations,
Senior Lecturer, Department of National Security and Humanities, Military Academy of the Armed Forces.
