The ceasefire document signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia with Russia’s mediation seeded a deep scepticism in future of Karabakh. The day’s biggest question is now – What is Russian army doing in Karabakh? On the other hand, the ongoing meetings between Turkey and Russia cast a shadow over the durability of the signed document which also discomforted the Turkish authority.

According to Turkish political experts, the existence of Russian troops in Karabakh is a potential threat for the destiny of the region. However, the President R.T Erdogan’s message  – Our Army will be in Karabakh, could on the one hand be somewhat consolation and on the other hand it signals the instability in the region, due to which the document may anytime be called as void.  

Despite silently observing the Karabakh war that ended with the defeat of Armenia, the Russian behaviour overtly shows that it still has an eye on the region. The signed document leaves the liberation of the core regions of Karabakh, including Khankendi, Khojavend, Khojaly, Esgeran and Aghdere under a big question. More to these, Lachin corridor along with them is totally under Russian control. There are two aspects – either the document is interpreted wrong or Russia is more ambitious in Transcaucasia whose purpose is to class it an enclave. 

If regarded to the document, Karabakh was not given any autonomy, however since the Russian troops immediately deployed in the region it created some predicaments, such as sovietisation in the region backing the Stalin’s decision. Besides that, Russia was quite patient until the Azerbaijani army was just about to liberate the aforementioned regions that are currently under Russian control. Obviously, Russia just revenged pro-western Pashinyan observing the defeat of his army from the satellite over the course of the 44-day hard battles.  Yes – Russia was aware of what was happening in the battle as Karabakh is the only hope for its lasting influence in the South Caucasus, and in many statements it had declared Khankendi a redline while the military operations were for Azerbaijan’s favour. 

Shusha may be in danger 

The liberation of Shusha on the 8th November was the greatest success in the history of Azerbaijan. Shusha is at the 7th km of Khankendi and one of the most strategic cities of Karabakh. Armenia recognised its defeat right after losing Shusha and it was two days before Russia called for the ceasefire. 

Meanwhile, the liberation of Shusha and the end of the war caused a big chaos in the Armenian parliament and in the public, which urged the resign of the Prime Minister. The question “why public of Armenia didn’t rise at the time when Tovuz region of Azerbaijan was bombed and attacked before the start of the war” may be answered as Armenia is entirely an aggressor and invader. Today Shusha is at the risk of being attacked despite its liberation. Turkey in its part is much more concerned in Russia’s pro-Armenian behaviour that may support militants to occupy the city once again. Despite the end of the war Armenians again broke the ceasefire shooting from Gubadly and Khojavend directions. It is also easy to understand from Lavrov’s speech in which he mentioned Azerbaijan as separate from the Nagorno Karabakh. So in this case Russia’s appearance in the region seems to be a real threat for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.  

Why Russian troops deployed in Karabakh

To reach its hand in Karabakh was one of the main purposes of Russia since the beginning of the war. Russia was simply seeking a moment to realise its sinister plan. The shooting of the helicopter in the air of Nakhchivan was just a part of the plan to intrude on the region with its military troops. This also increased its influence over Yerevan and as a result of it Pashinyan could survive from the attacks of the public and the opposition. After all this, the Armenian government will be looking for a new leader. And in this case, this leader will be brought to power by Russia, who will help Russia to reinforce its influence in Armenia. At the same time, Russia will play a new ally to legalize military provocation in Karabakh. This will create conditions for the occupation of other strategically advantageous regions, including Shusha, by Armenians. However, Turkey is aware of all these plans and, based on recent negotiations, is ensuring the presence of Turkish troops in Karabakh along with the Russian ones to ensure the full security of the region. Along with the complete liberation of Karabakh, the establishment of a great Turkish state is one of the main goals of Turkey. In this regard, Turkey's expectation is to unite Nakhchivan with Azerbaijan, as well as to see Zangazur as a full part of Azerbaijan. However, Russia's maneuvers in Karabakh and the Armenian government's refusal to allow the region of Megri (formerly the territory of Azerbaijan’s Zengezur) to cross the border between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan could invalidate the signed document as well as resume the war. Thus, Russia eventually occupied Karabakh, which clearly shows that it is an imperialist state. In response, we should not forget Turkish President Erdogan's statement that "we can enter suddenly one night" - just as Russia did. Turkey is taking the necessary measures in this regard and stands by the brother state of Azerbaijan.