Eurasia Diary conducted an interview with Avraham Shmulevich, Israeli historian and political analyst regarding the current situation around Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Initially, Shmulevich in his comments touched upon the issue of granting Azerbaijani citizenship to Armenian population of Karabakh.
"The Azerbaijani government in his statements has not yet said that which groups would receive Azerbaijani passports on what basis. Military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh began before Azerbaijan gained independence. Karabakh Armenians have never had Azerbaijani citizenship. Among Armenians living here are those carrying Russian, French and American citizenship. There are also Syrian refugees and those born in the so-called "NKR" after 1991. Armenians now ask themselves one question: under Azerbaijani law, would all Armenians living in Karabakh be considered criminals? Going to Karabakh without the permission of the Azerbaijani border service is considered crime. "According to Azerbaijani law, those who served in the administration of the so-called NKR, and those who took part in the military operations of the Armenian army should be arrested. Furthermore, the tripartite statement does not clarify many issues," the expert said.
According to Shmulevich, Azerbaijanis have fallen in trap like Armenians falled in trap.
"Armenians used to think that they could ignore international law and the opinion of the international community, and the main thing for themselves is to own Karabakh. However, international law stated that Azerbaijan had the right to restore its territorial integrity. The right of Karabakh Armenians to autonomy will be determined by the right that Azerbaijan will give them. Now it seems that the Azerbaijani government hopes that the Karabakh Armenians will leave and that they will no longer have such problem. If this happens, Azerbaijan will put itself under international pressure. There is an opinion that the rights of Karabakh Armenians are violated and that Azerbaijan does not ensure the rights of the Armenians. Armenians are currently preparing this trap. This is also the goal of the campaign for the return of refugees from Karabakh and Khankendi in Armenia, "he said.
Speaking about the role of Russia and Turkey in resolving the conflict, Shmulevich said that Turkey had won a diplomatic victory in this matter.
"For 30 years, the South Caucasus was Russia's 'backyard' and its interests were taken into account, and only it could be a mediator. Turkey has now established itself as a major player and a key guarantor and lever of influence for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Russia is currently trying to maintain its position. Arms shipments from Russia to Armenia continue. A few days ago, 10 planes landed in Yerevan from Russia. Russia is arming the Armenian army, and trying to prevent Turkey from playing an active role in the region. We see competition here, "he said.
Regarding the activities of Russian peacekeepers, the expert noted that they ensured the effectiveness of Russia's influence in the region.
"Russia now has a military base in Azerbaijan. As like other territories, where Russian forces deployed, such as South Ossetia, Abkhazia and the part of Transnistria, Moscow is turning Nagorno-Karabakh into a military base. Russian border service troops will operate in Zangazur territory of Armenia sharing border with Azerbaijan, as well as in the Lachin corridor, but their number is not specified. Karabakh is becoming a permanent military base for Russia. Dadivang Church, located in the territory of Azerbaijan, is protected by Russian peacekeepers. The question is, what are the Russians doing there? Part of the Zod gold deposit belonged to Azerbaijan during the Soviet era, and the other part to Armenia. Earlier, the Armenians moved the site of the gate leading to the mine 1.5 km forward. Russian peacekeepers are acting autonomously and taking control of the area," Shmulevich said.
