It has become globally interested in what policies Joseph Biden, the Democrat President of the United States will pursue in the current international affairs during his first four-year period.

Especially, in the the South Caucasus region policymakers and experts expect what steps Biden administration will do in the progress of the further diplomatic relations of the United States with Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia as well as the strengthening of peace, tranquility and stability in the South Caucasus. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still in the attention of the United States in terms of regional security and strategic interests.

It should be noted that the United States, one of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (France and Russia), has mediated in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but the Minsk Group has failed to find any peaceful solutions to the conflict.

During the Second Karabakh War, Joseph Biden, when he was Democrat nominee for the presidential elections, made some statements on the Karabakh conflict and called both Azerbaijan and Armenia to stop war and return to negotiations. Despite Biden’s statements based on neutrality, he called to freeze US security aid to Azerbaijan. According to Free Radio, in an October 28 statement, he said that U.S. President Donald Trump must “get involved personally to stop this war” and freeze U.S. aid to Azerbaijan.

We know that democrats traditionally have had close ties with the representatives of the Armenian Lobby and served in favor of Armenian interests. Moreover, we witnessed a situation that the number of members of the US Congress, who are Democrats, supported Armenia during 44 days war. They condemned Azerbaijan's war to stop Armenian occupation in its sovereign territory.

As regards the expectations from the policy of Biden administration on the issue of the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Eurasia Diary woukd like to share comments of expert Murad Muradov, the co- founder  and Deputy of Topchubashov centre, Baku-based think.

According to him, the Democratic Party is traditionally more active on the Armenian issue than the Republicans. However, he also stressed that there are no grounds to suggest that the U.S. will try to revise the outcomes of the war or patronize Armenia.

“Washington has never been a key power in the South Caucasus, and it actually started to diminish its presence in the region under the Democratic President Obama. The White House will prefer to coordinate its stance on Nagorno Karabakh with European partners, particularly since Biden’s priority is restoring America’s traditional alliance with the EU. As we can suggest from the position of such European countries as UK and Italy, as well as the visit of the French State Secretary to Baku and some other signals, Europe is not going to support Armenian irredentist claims either, and we shouldn’t think Washington will do otherwise. Moreover, Biden’s administration must understand that currently any attempt to reshuffle the fragile post-war balance in the conflict zone will only play in the Russian hand, making their peacekeeping forces even more indispensable,” Muradov said.

Touching upon Armenian expectations from the Biden administration, Muradov noted that U.S. policy towards Armenia and Azerbaijan is not going to change dramatically.

“While immediately after the war a lot of analysts in Yerevan were expressing big hopes about Biden, now they call to be realistic and admit that U.S. policy towards Armenia and Azerbaijan is not going to change dramatically,” he said.

Antony Blinken, before his appointment of Secretary of the State Department said in his speech that he will reinvigorate the US engagement to find a permanent settlement to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that protects the security of Nagorno-Karabakh and ensure another war does not break out.

In response to Blinken's message, Muradov pointed out that Washington feels unhappy with the fact that the Minsk Group has been driven to a back seat in the conflict resolution process.

“Many experts and policymakers view the outcomes of the 44-days war as the ultimate triumph of Russia and Turkey and failure of the West to promote its normative agenda in the region. The State Department will likely work to reinvigorate the Minsk Group and try to regain initiative or at least, balance Moscow and Ankara in the negotiation process. However, absent any attractive proposals this policy will hardly be efficient: Baku sees itself as a winner and is not going to accept any ideas that will compromise its gains; at the same time, official Yerevan still wants to engage in revisionism and reverse the outcomes of the war, somehow hoping to do that with the help of the Minsk Group, particularly its Western co-chairs. Unless this attitude changes and Washington finds realistic and creative approaches, the prospects of its reinvigorated mediation efforts look bleak,” he stressed.

As for the revival of 907 of Freedom Support act to ban aid to Azerbaijan, Muradov considered that imposing 907 again is possible but not very likely prospect.  

“This opportunity cannot be completely excluded and failing to waive the 907th amendment for the first time since G. W. Bush may be viewed by some people in the new administration as an acceptable step to strengthen the links with the Armenian Diaspora. Moreover, unlike Europe, U.S. doesn’t enjoy strong economic ties with Baku. However, Azerbaijan is primarily important for Washington as a secular Muslim country in the region which has better ties with Israel rather than Iran and is interested in bringing Central Asian resources to the Western markets. So, reviving the 907 is a possible but not very likely prospect,” he noted.

 Interviewed by Yunis Abdullayev