American political analyst and expert on the post-soviet studies, Paul Goble commented on the impacts of the reopening of the Nakhchivan corridor to the countries sharing borders with the region of the South Caucasus.
Paul Goble considered that the reestablishment of the Nakhchivan corridor will lead Iran to lose its leverage on Baku.
According to Goble, while Azerbaijan and Turkey will gain from the reopening of rail and highways links between Azerbaijan proper and the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichivan, Iran will lost leverage on Baku.
"Since the early 1990s, Azerbaijanis wishing to travel between the two parts of their country have had to get visas to travel through Iranian territory because the generally frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia meant that these routes through the Armenian territory between them were blocked," he noted.
"Now, under the January accord between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, these routes are to be reopened, although the exact routes remain in dispute with Yerevan favoring a more northerly one and Azerbaijan the restoration of a more southerly one. Baku may get its way because Russia owns and controls the Armenian railways," he added.
Goble pointed out that Iran, which has always been able to slow or speed up the visa process, will be big loser in this sector as well as now face a stronger Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance to its north.
American analyst also noted that Armenians are worried about the reopening of the corridor because it could decrease Iran's influence and create opportunities for Turkey to increase its power in the region.
"Indeed, Armenian analysts argue, the re-opening of this corridor will benefit Turkey even more than Azerbaijan, which already has rail and highway connections with all of its neighbors except Armenia and that Armenia is not getting sufficient compensation because the unblocking would not allow it to restore ties with Russia," he stressed.
"Instead, the corridors it has been offered are to Iran and Turkey. There is almost no Armenian trade with or even interest in trade with the latter, and trade with the former is likely to continue through the corridor between the two parts of Azerbaijan rather than across Nakhichevan, despite suggestions by Moscow and Baku that that route will open new prospects," he added.
Furthermore, Goble underlined that Armenian authorities are likely to do everything they can to drag their feet on unblocking the Zengezur corridor, viewing it as one of their last trump cards to demand that Baku move toward its understanding of special status for the Armenians of Qarabagh.
