The United States’ relationship with Russia is today the worst that it has been since the 1980s. Particularly, Moscow’s interference in the recent U.S. election campaign made Russia a toxic domestic issue in a way that it has not been since the 1950s.
Generally, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and launch of the war in southeastern Ukraine, plus its support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in his brutal civil war, and holding Caucasus in leverages have raised tensions with the United States.
Despite many efforts made to affect the campaign at the 2020 presidential election, it was immediately overcome. However, the situations in the US put Putin administration in an awkward position, as a result of which the newly elected president Joe Biden phoned up his counterpart to warn him of such a sinister espionage.
Political expert Patrick Walsh commented further on issues with Russian-US relation as well as bringing some clarification on the concern with current uprising in Russia after jailing Alexei Navalny. He also spoke to Eurasia Diary explaining Russia’s future role in the Caucasus and in particular Azerbaijan.
The year of 2021 upon Joe Biden’s winning at the presidential election started with a cold relation with his Russian counterpart. The chaos in Russia, especially arrest of the opposition party leader A.Navalny triggered the west into actions towards Kremlin. What would be the consequence for the Putin administration amid the rising tensions in the country?
The year of 2021 began with some important international events. Joe Biden took up office at the White House as new U.S. President. Relations are expected to be colder between the new President and his counterpart in the Kremlin, President Putin. The protests in Russia, following the arrest and sentencing of opposition leader, Aleksey Navalny, have raised the temperature in the West towards the Kremlin. There will probably be consequences for the Putin administration from these rising tensions in the country and the reaction in the West.
President Trump had developed a working relationship with President Putin during his tenure. When Trump refused to concede defeat in the Presidential election of 2020 it was not noticed that the Democrat Party had actually not conceded defeat in 2016 to Trump. In fact, they had pursued Trump for most of his term on the basis that his election had been illegitimate, being assisted by Moscow and stolen from Hilary Clinton. This accusation was the basis of a Congressional Inquiries and the first Impeachment attempt. So it is unlikely that relations between President Biden and Putin will be good. Having said that, it is likely that Trump has succeeded in redirecting the United States’ main geopolitical focus toward China, rather than Russia. This is understandable since China is, without doubt, the major threat to U.S. economic hegemony in the world, rather than the much weaker Russia, which Putin has resurrected but cannot revive to its Soviet position.
What does Aleksey Navalniy mean for Russia in 2021?
Navalny is the most substantial opposition to emerge to Putin in 20 years. That is his chief attraction to the West. In fact, most of Navalny’s supporters in Russia seem to be agreed that his usefulness lies in his power to damage Putin rather than replace him. Navalny does not seem to be a popular character and carries much Russian chauvinist baggage. Despite this he is supported by a wide political spectrum from feminist anarchists to bourgeois liberals. Where the U.S. differs from the Russian opposition is that Washington hopes Navalny might disable Russia and reduce it to democratic chaos whereas the opposition in Russia still has faith in Russia as a potentially liberal democratic state. History suggests they are mistaken and the U.S. is more on solid ground.
Many politicians say that Putin is not as strong as he was before. Who would be the most real candidate to take on the position if Putin leaves the power?
Many observers believe that Putin is not as strong as he was. That is perhaps inevitable. Putin has played a weak hand very well but he has no natural successor. It is well understood that Russia will be weakened if Putin is unseated. The opposition to Putin is very fragmented and Russia has never developed a functional party system on Western lines. So it has no effective alternative government. This all suggests that Russia will be at least disabled upon Putin’s retirement and probably face a return to the Yeltsin era. It is unlikely that Russia could function properly under a pro-Western figure. The historical development of Russia and the geopolitical attitude of the West toward it is unlikely to facilitate such a development.
How would that change the role of Russia in Caucasus if Russian power were ruled by a pro-Western figure?
Many in the Caucasus might be pleased at President Putin’s demise. However, I would urge caution. Azerbaijan has developed a good relationship with Putin that enabled it to win the Karabakh war without Russian intervention. Of course, Putin prevented a complete Armenian defeat, but the controlled management of Armenia’s surrender has enabled the process of reconstruction and repopulation to begin, which is much more a priority than further fighting. Putin is a pragmatist, first and foremost. He recognized the rising economic and military power of Azerbaijan and made provision for it. He respects a strong, stable and friendly neighbour much more than an unstable, dependent and dysfunctional political entity like Armenia. The fall of Putin could mean a new Russian regime that might be more Russian chauvinist than the current administration, and would present renewed possibilities for Yerevan to influence things in Moscow. “Better the devil you know, than the one you don’t,” as we say in Ireland.
By Elnur Enveroglu
