Many think that Moscow’s “peacekeepers” represent a Russian advance, but in fact, they tie Moscow’s hands far more, said Paul Goble, former special advisor to the State Department on the Soviet nationalities and Baltic affairs.
After the end of the Second Karabakh war, the region of the South Caucasus in terms of strategy, stability and security has become an important arena in the attention of Russia, Iran, Turkey, and even the United States and European Union.
Paul Goble, who is professionally practiced on the conflicts in the post-soviet region, shared views with Eurasia Diary about the external impacts and prospects for peace and security in the region of the South Caucasus.
Initially, P.Goble touched upon consistence of ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He considers that there is a possibility that Russian peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh could cause provocative actions in the region.
“The ceasefire appears to be holding for the time being, but so many issues remain in contention and the Russian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh are testing the limits, thus raising the possibility that their actions will be read as provocative and lead to an explosion,” he said, and adding that “the longer things are stable in these weeks, the longer the ceasefire is likely to hold; and conversely, the dangers are greatest now but appear set to decline.”
American expert points out that the outcomes of the Second Karabakh war led Russia’s influence to decrease in the South Caucasus.
“Russia lost influence in the South Caucasus. It didn’t support Armenia as it had promised and has lost that country forever. It tried three times to get a ceasefire but got one only when Baku wanted it and on Baku’s conditions. And it sought to block Turkey’s expanding role, including troops in a CIS country, and failed,” he noted.
“Many think that Moscow’s “peacekeepers” represent a Russian advance, but in fact, they tie Moscow’s hands far more, because their cost is infuriating many Russians at home as well as Moscow no longer plays strong role it did a year ago,” he added.
Majority of Armenians lost trust to Russia, as they considered that Moscow betrayed them in the war. In general, it is very interesting to look through prospects for the development of Armenian-Russian relations.
Goble shortly answered that Armenians will never trust Russia again and it creates opportunities for Baku and Ankara to take action in the region.
“No matter who comes out on top in Yerevan, Armenians will never trust Russia again. This provides an opening for Baku, Ankara, and others to take action if they are clever,” he said.
As for Iran sharing borders with the South Caucasus, Tehran is trying to show itself as aiming to play an active role in the region of the South Caucasus. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s visit to the countries of the South Caucasus, Russia and Turkey confirms this.
According to Goble, Iran lost enormous leverage with the Azerbaijani victory, and it cannot further keep the flow of people and goods between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.
“Iran lost enormous leverage with the Azerbaijani victory. It no longer will be able to control the flow of people and goods between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. Tehran is trying to find a way to restore some of its influence before Azerbaijan’s victory echoes still more loudly among the 30 plus million Azeris in Iran,” he stressed.
The joint Russian-Turkish Monitoring Center consisting of Russian and Turkish military staff has already started to operate in Aghdam region of Azerbaijan, missions of which are to control ceasefire and military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Touching upon the activities of the joint monitoring center in Karabakh region, Goble noted that Karabakh dispute has been intractable because almost every aspect of it is connected to everything else; and if disputes in one area arise, it is likely that they will spread to others.
“For that reason, the most important role of the Joint Center may not, in fact, be as a monitor of what is happening along the new line of separation the Russian peacekeepers are patrolling but as a barometer of where and how the conflict may ease or reignite,” he said
You can learn much information about the joint Russian-Turkish Monitoring center in Goble’s article cited in this link. https://jamestown.org/program/joint-russian-turkish-karabakh-monitoring-center-opens-amidst-fresh-controversy/
Furthermore, Goble talked about the foreign policy of the Biden administration related to the region of the South Caucasus.
It should be noted that new Secretary of the State Department, Antony Blinken before being appointed as the Secretary said in his speech that he will reinvigorate the United States to find permanent peace to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that protect the security of Nagorno-Karabakh and ensure war not break out.
Commenting on the policies in what direction the Biden administration may pursue for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Goble points out that the new administration of the United States will undoubtedly reengage in the South Caucasus.
“Without doubt, US attention to and actions regarding the South Caucasus are set to increase. But Washington is somewhat limited in its ability to do a lot given that Moscow has succeeded in marginalizing the Minsk Group and has declared that it opposes any discussion of final status for Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku welcomes this – it is another example of Moscow’s deference to Azerbaijan now – and Yerevan is furious. But if Moscow won’t talk about this issue, it remains very much to be seen what the US will do,” he concluded.
by Yunis Abdullayev
