Some in Baku may be worried that there could be terrorist-type attacks on its infrastructure in the Caspian to weaken Azerbaijan and Turkey, said Paul Goble, American analyst on Post-Soviet studies.
Commenting on the capabilities of Azerbaijani navy in the Caspian sea, P.Goble noted that Azerbaijani navy is seldom given much attention at least in comparison to that country’s increasingly powerful land forces.
According to his opinion, the expanded cross-Caspian trade between Azerbaijan and Central Asia, as well as concerns about the possibility of attacks on those links and its energy infrastructure in the Caspian Sea urges Baku to keep more attention on the strengthening defence in the Caspian sea.
Up to now, the Azerbaijani navy has had primarily a coastal defense and search-and-rescue mission. But this week, Baku announced that it was expanding its focus to include “the defense of energy infrastructure in its operational zone in the Caspian Sea," Goble stressed.
American expert points out that there are two reasons why Azerbaijani navy's commanders want to boost their influunce and power.
"On the one hand, in the wake of Azerbaijan’s land victory in Qarabagh, some in Baku may be worried that there could be terrorist-type attacks on its infrastructure in the Caspian to weaken Azerbaijan and Turkey," Goble noted.
"And on the other hand, although Moscow and Tehran are pleased with the expansion of economic ties between Azerbaijan, Turkey and Central Asia have forces in the Caspian sea that could be used to discourage or disrupt the flow of trade across the Caspian in order to boost their own plans for north-south arrangements," he added.
Furthermore, Goble considers that the trans-Caspian links are critical for the hopes and plans of both Baku and Ankara to expand their roles as regional powers.
"Turkey already has a major shipbuilding industry. It is not impossible to imagine that Ankara may seek to help Azerbaijan by supplying its expertise to developing the capacities of the Azerbaijani navy in the coming months. If that happens, the Azerbaijani navy and its possible competition with Russian and Iranian forces are both likely to become more important," he concluded.