Snap parliamentary elections are unlikely to resolve Armenia’s political gridlock

Analytics 17:45 23.03.2021

Eurasia Diary presents article titled "Snap parliamentary elections are unlikely to resolve Armenia’s political gridlock" published in Commonspace.eu. 

Article was written by Benyamin Poghosyan, Founder and Chairman of the Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies in Yerevan.

Armenia appears heading for snap parliamentary elections on 20 June, but hopes that the poll may resolve the current gridlock in the Armenian political arena may be premature. Benyamin Poghosyan argues in this op-ed that for Armenia, things may get worse before they get better.

A tense political crisis has been ongoing in Armenia since immediately after the signing of the 10 November, 2020, trilateral statement on Nagorno Karabakh. That same night, angry protestors stormed the building of the Government and the Parliament, and the National Assembly's Speaker was physically attacked, resulting in him spending a month in the hospital. However, these actions did not lead to the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. He took refuge in a Ministry of Defence bunker for a week, and there was no organised opposition that could take power while the Prime Minister was absent from the political scene. By the end of November, up to 17 opposition parties organised the "Movement for the salvation of homeland." They started to demand the resignation of the prime minister and the formation of an interim government under the leadership of a veteran of Armenian politics – the first prime minister of independent Armenia, Vazgen Manukyan - and the holding of snap parliamentary elections within 12 months.

However, relying on police and national security service loyalty, Pashinyan left his bunker in mid-November 2020 and launched a counter-attack against the opposition. His main argument was that Armenia's previous authorities were the main culprit responsible for the defeat, since they had plundered Armenia from 1998 to 2018 and did not prepare the army for the upcoming war. After the President of Armenia, the leaders of the Armenian Church, and a majority of academic circles demanded his resignation, the prime minister warned against an "elite's coup attempt against the ordinary people".

Since mid-November 2020, Armenian society remains deeply polarised. One can identify several clusters:

The first group firmly believes that Pashinyan should resign, and a criminal investigation should be launched to analyse his actions/inactions prior, during, and after the 2020 Karabakh war. For these people, anyone else in the position of prime minister is better than Pashinyan.

The second group also believes Pashinyan should leave. However, they strongly reject the possibility of the return to power of either the second or the third presidents of Armenia – Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. Given the active participation of the former ruling Republican Party, Prosperous Armenia party and Armenian Revolutionary Federation in the united opposition's activities, this group does not support them and looks for other alternatives.

The third group is against Pashinyan too, but they hate Pashinyan less than Kocharyan and Sargsyan. They believe that if Pashinyan resigns, power will be grabbed by either Kocharyan or Sargsyan. Thus, while criticising Pashinyan, this group supports him to prevent the return of former authorities.

The fourth group is comprised of genuine supporters of Pashinyan. They believe that Pashinyan did nothing wrong; that he sought to save Karabakh through war but the Armenian army was doomed to fail due to the "previous 20 years of robbery". They argue that Generals lost the war, and they should be held accountable alongside the former criminal authorities.

Finally, the fifth group is indifferent to political developments. Their main attention is focused on securing a livelihood. Since their ordinary lives are not impacted, and they continue to work, receive salaries, and their relatives have not been killed, wounded, or displaced during the recent war, they continue with their daily life. For them, who controls Shushi or Hadrut today, and who may control Syunik tomorrow, is of no consequence.

According to a recent IRI commissioned poll conducted in mid-February 2021, 33 percent of the population is still ready to vote for Pashinyan and his 'My step' coalition, while all other political forces have less than 5 percent of support. However, this poll was conducted before the February 25 statement of Armed Forces General Staff demanding Pashinyan's resignation and the legal battle between the Government and the General Staff that ensued. It is likely that the current support for the Prime Minister in society is about 25-30 percent.

After consultations with the president and the two opposition parties in the Parliament, Nikol Pashinyan on Thursday (18 March) stated that snap parliamentary elections would be held in Armenia on 20 June, 2021. The procedure envisaged is that Pashinyan will resign at the end of April/beginning of May and parliament will not choose a new prime minister twice, as a result of which it will be dissolved automatically. The Deputy Speaker of the Parliament stated that Pashinyan would continue to serve as Acting Prime Minister during the campaign, while opponents argued that doing so would violate the law and one of the two Deputy Prime Ministers should be appointed as an Acting Prime Minister during the campaign.

Some hope that the snap parliamentary elections may end the political crisis in Armenia, and a new government will be formed with a new mandate. However, most probably, the real battle during the campaign will be between Pashinyan and the second president, Kocharyan, with the participation of forces associated with the first president, Levon Ter Petrosyan, and the third president, Serzh Sargsyan. Armenia’s problem is that all these four figures are deeply polarising political actors. Defeat in the recent Karabakh war has only increased the animosity between their supporters. In the current circumstances, neither side will accept defeat. If Pashinyan receives a majority and forms a new government (either with a single party or through the formation of a coalition), people who believe that Pashinyan is the main culprit of the recent catastrophe and should be punished will argue that Pashinyan rigged elections.

Already there are active discussions that Pashinyan knows very well that if he loses power, he will have two choices – to flee Armenia or face life imprisonment. According to this logic, Pashinyan has all the motives to rig elections to save his power and secure himself and his family. Thus, this part of society will continue its fight against Pashinyan after the elections, calling for the cancellation of rigged election results and organisation of repeat elections.

Interestingly, the first President of Armenia recently offered his vision of overcoming the political crisis – allowing Pashinyan to flee Armenia with his family and guaranteeing that the new authorities will not initiate a criminal investigation against him and will not use Interpol to catch him and bring him back to Armenia. Pashinyan has already rejected this offer.

On the other hand, if, after the elections, Kocharyan, Sargsyan, or persons associated with them come to power, a minimum of 25 percent of the population will protest the results, arguing that they will never accept the return of criminals to authority. In this scenario, they will start street protests calling for repeat Parliamentary elections.

Neither Pashinyan nor Kocharyan or Sargsyan can provide even short-term stability in Armenia. Armenia has no alternative forces which have the necessary financial and human resources and external backing to compete with them in the 20 June snap parliamentary elections. The political deadlock and instability will therefore likely continue in Armenia after the snap elections. It will happen in parallel with the economic crisis, which has already arrived, triggering an average 20-percent increase in food prices and a 10-percent deprecation of the Armenian currency. The current instability and political ambiguity have significantly impacted the state institutions' effectiveness, and these institutions are at the moment semi-paralysed.  

For Armenia, things may get worse before they get better.  

Azerbaijan takes measures to turn Khankandi into safe city - VİDEO

News line

Date of next meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani Parliament Speakers announced
09:00 29.03.2024
Russia prepares for new offensive in May-June l – says Zelensky
23:52 28.03.2024
Russian investigators have evidence of Ukraine link to Crocus terrorists
22:24 28.03.2024
Committee members of the EU Council will visit the South Caucasus region
19:48 28.03.2024
Bayern to pay Thomas Tuchel 12M euro compensation
Bayern to pay Thomas Tuchel 12M euro compensation
19:00 28.03.2024
Crocus City Hall terrorists took drugs before attack - law enforcement agencies
Crocus City Hall terrorists took drugs before attack - law enforcement agencies
18:33 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan, UN Development Program mull future co-op
18:00 28.03.2024
An Independent Trade Union Established within International Eurasia Press Fund - First in NGO sector - PHOTOS
17:39 28.03.2024
Italian PM condemns Macron for idea of sending troops to Ukraine
Italian PM condemns Macron for idea of sending troops to Ukraine
17:23 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan lends clarity to color requirement for taxis
17:02 28.03.2024
Isaac Herzog: Israel has no greater friend than US, and US has no greater friend than Israel
Isaac Herzog: Israel has no greater friend than US, and US has no greater friend than Israel
16:45 28.03.2024
Nigerian army eliminates over 200 militants in 2 weeks
16:30 28.03.2024
Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine launched in Poland
Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine launched in Poland
16:15 28.03.2024
Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
15:55 28.03.2024
Türkiye plays an important role between Russia and Ukraine - says political scientist Ismail Cingoz
15:45 28.03.2024
2 schoolchildren detained in France on suspicion of sending bomb threats
15:35 28.03.2024
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
15:26 28.03.2024
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
15:15 28.03.2024
Media: US did not transfer all information about terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall to Russia
15:00 28.03.2024
Movement ‘Together’ calls on Armenia’s parliamentary forces to express vote of no confidence in Pashinyan
14:41 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
14:32 28.03.2024
Le Pen accuses French government of fraud
14:22 28.03.2024
Armenian Government Grapples with Internal Division on Village Return Issue - Ishkhan Verdiyan talks on Ednews
14:12 28.03.2024
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
13:41 28.03.2024
Expert Ilyas Huseynov Predicts Peaceful Return of these territories to Azerbaijan
13:20 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
12:55 28.03.2024
Russian MFA concerned about upcoming Armenia-US-EU meeting
12:23 28.03.2024
Secret Points of Pashinyan's Meeting with French Representative: Is Peace Agreement Signing Imminent?
12:00 28.03.2024
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
11:47 28.03.2024
The US-Armenia-EU Joint Conference is a part of the pressure plan on Azerbaijan - MP Konul Nurullayeva
11:30 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
11:23 28.03.2024
CSTO chief: ‘Yerevan doesn’t participate in our work, but there are no statements about suspension’
11:13 28.03.2024
Ammunition found in Khankandi
Ammunition found in Khankandi
11:00 28.03.2024
Russia had been aware of preparation for terrorist attack at Crocus - says intelligience chief
10:46 28.03.2024
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
10:33 28.03.2024
Head of the SSS: France is inciting Armenia to a new war
10:21 28.03.2024
Are we in the brink of World War III? - Pundit talks on Ednews
10:10 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan's National Security: Reflecting on 105 Years of Defending Sovereignty
09:55 28.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev: Rasmussen fell in forgetfulness to attach payment to his report
09:35 28.03.2024
Hand grenades found in Kalbajar
09:25 28.03.2024
Hamısı