As the tension over the disputed areas at the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains unresolved, Russian side has expressed its readiness to mediate and provide assistance at reaching agreement between two South Caucasus countries on the determination of the state border.
On 19 May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in his press conference with his Tajik counterpart Sirojiddin Muhriddin in Dushanbe touched upon the incidents at the Azerbaijan-Armenian state border.
In his speech, Sergey Lavrov said that Russia has proposed to create the joint commission to launch the process of the delimitation and demarcation of the state borders in order to solve the disputes at the border through peaceful means.
Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan to discuss the border tension with them.
In his conversation, Vladimir Putin noted that Russian side is ready to mediate in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the process of delimitation and demarcation of the state borders.
Speaking to Eurasia Diary, Paul Goble, American expert on the post-soviet studies, as well as the former advisor to the State Department on Soviet nationalities and Baltic affairs, made comments on the role of Russian mediation in the talks on the determination of the Azerbaijan-Armenian state border.
P.Goble initially said that the government of Armenia and Azerbaijan will show a positive reaction to Russia’s proposal on the creation of the joint commission which is responsible for promoting the process of delimitation and demarcation of the state border.
“It is very likely that both countries will accept the proposal. The issue will be whether they intend to move quickly or drag their feet once they do. Drawing borders is a very difficult and time consuming process in the best of circumstances,” Goble said.
American expert pointed out that the best move for Azerbaijan is to accept the Russian proposal but then seek to expand the participants in the discussion to include Turkey, the US and Western powers.
“Russians will object but how they object will say a lot about what Moscow intends, whether it wants a real settlement fair to Azerbaijan or not,” he noted.
According to Goble, the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan would come to the common understanding on the solution of demarcation and delimitation of the state border, but both of them will face difficulties.
“It will be very hard, but the basic principle has to be equity. Each side has to feel it has been positively confiscated for anything it gives up. Both will likely have to agree to pull forces back from the putative border under a precise line can be agreed to and then marked. If neither or both refuse, then the talks will collapse, which may be the best course for Azerbaijan if Moscow tilts too far in the direction of Armenia,” he said.
In addition, there are a number of disputed areas at the Azerbaijan-Armenian border such as Gragol Lake. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan is able to put the efforts to engage in the bilateral dialogue to solve disputes.
In fact, there were maps, which had been signed by Armenian SSR and Azerbaijan SSR in the Soviet period, to determine the border line between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moscow would take into account the Soviet maps in the negotiations for the process of demarcation and delimitation of the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border.
P.Goble considered that Moscow could put forward two different maps on the table, which one serves for the interests of Azerbaijan, another is for Armenia.
“There are two sets of maps from Soviet times. One produced by the Defence Ministry gives certain advantages to Azerbaijan especially around Garagol Lake in Syunik/Zengezur. The other, produced by geographers at Moscow State University, is a topographic map of a smaller scale and benefits Armenia. But neither of these two maps or those based on them was ever agreed by the two union republics. Baku and Yerevan were presented with them and they used them. But there was never an agreement between the two. That is true of all republic borders in Soviet times, not just this one,” he stressed.
Furthermore, P.Goble underscored that the solution of the disputes over the some areas at the border is of importance for cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“At one level, both countries will benefit from a settlement. It will allow for trade and investment and mean an end to the loss of life,” he said.
Goble added that Armenia and Azerbaijan are not in the same position.
According to him, Azerbaijan can afford to build real borders and corridors on its own at any time and has a better and more effective military which would take what Baku wants unless Armenia gets aid.
“Armenia does not have the resources to build either an effective border – its current borders are guarded by Russian border troops – let alone a corridor across Nakhchievan. That means at least potentially that Azerbaijan could walk out of the talks because it can act if Russia does not back Armenia. That isn’t necessarily a good thing, but it changes the nature of the talks,” he added.
