Britain voted Thursday to leave the European Union. Eurasia Diary talked exclusively on Brexit to Dr. Victor Bojkov, Head of Unit, Directorate General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations of European Commission.

Shock!

Prediction share of the vote was 52 per cent for the Remain. All the polling agencies have overwhelming forecast that the results will be for the Remain. Next day people voted for the Leave.

Sad day for Europe

What we heard from the President of the European Parliament, President of the European Council and President of the Commission in a joint statement was how they were upset about this “sad day for Europe”. The general opinion here, in Brussels, judging that statement is that the decision is permanent and non-reversible.

Now Britain is invited to the step of starting the ‘Article 50 process’ which is regulating the exit of a member state leaving the European Union. That is why it is more irreversible than reversible. However, you never know what happens next when the negotiations are still going on.

Not so fast, - says Scotland

Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland was clear in her statements saying that ‘we want to have another referendum on the table’. She said last time when Scotland voted in 2014, one of the reasons why people voted to remain in the UK was because of the guarantee that Scotland will remain in the EU within the UK. The point was that if Scotland leaves the UK it would be difficult to become a member of EU. Country would have to go through all the procedures of association. Sturgeon said now, after the Brexit, the basis for that decision has gone. So Scotland wants and it is likely to push for another referendum.

Nevertheless, it is too soon to discuss everything. These are just speculations. One thing is the fact that now Great Britain is divided. 

Generational Divide in Democracy

Overall opinion in the UK and Europe now is that, ‘yes, of course, it is good to have a referendum and good to have people to vote.  This is the way how sovereignty works’. However, the flip side of the story is that can you make decisions that will have such a huge implication, which will impacts generations and be irreversible based on such a small percentage of difference; 1 million voters. It is true that 1 million voters in England is a big number but in percentage it is just 2 per cent. Should there be some kind of election threshold?

Just look at the example of Montenegro and Serbia. When Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia dissolved the republics of Serbia and Montenegro together established a federation- State Union of Serbia and Montenegro. Later, Montenegro decided to have a referendum to leave this state union and became an independent country.  At that time the limit was 55% of majority to make decision valid.

This example is now widely discussed in the Europe; Threshold is necessary. Only then one can be sure that there is wide majority.

Dr. Victor Bojkov is the Head of Unit, Directorate General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations of European Commission, Brussels.

Ed: The content of this opinion reflects personal views and does not present the official opinion of the European Union.