Only a unified policy would strengthen permanent security in Europe Expert

Analytics 16:20 18.02.2022

Ukraine, Poland and Britain announced the establishment of the trilateral alliance.

According to the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine, the governments of Ukraine, Poland and the United Kingdom have decided on the foundation of the alliance, which is directed to confront the threats of Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.

 In his comments, Sebastian Schäffer, expert for Eastern and Central Europe, believed that the initiative for the creation of alliance in Europe went into line with a general trend to establish minilateral formats.

“Benelux is for example a very old one, but also cooperation like Visegrad or Weimar Triangle has had added values. Nevertheless the question remains if additional formats bring additional benefits. In the case of the trilateral pact between UK, Poland, and Ukraine, we will have to see what it will entail in practice, as it so far has only been announced covering areas, which aim to alleviate the constant threat to Ukraine like increasing military assistance and cyber security. In the current situation any support is understandably welcomed by Kyiv, as there is no short term integration into other security formats possible”.

Expert said that this alliance would have less impact on conventional security and stability in Europe.

“I do nevertheless not think that this pact would fundamentally change the security architecture in Europe, although given the immanent and constant danger posed by the Russian Federation to Ukraine any possibility of deterrence is necessary”.

“The reason why Germany is not a part of it I would see in the uncertainty that is currently among the partners in Europe, to which extent Berlin is willing to act towards the Kremlin and especially with regards to Nordstream 2, which has put a strain on the relationship with Poland but also Ukraine. Since the UK left the EU, this might also be an additional reason to form such a pact and bring some assurances outside of the CFSP”, he added.

In conclusion, he added that a stronger signal towards EU integration of Ukraine would have a bigger impact in the long-term perspective.

“Only a unified foreign policy will yield tangible results. I have argued since the beginning of the Eastern Partnership in 2009 that a membership perspective should be officially given. Under the current circumstances, an immediate start of the negotiations would send a strong signal, but has of course also the potential for further escalation”. 

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