NATO- Russia relations: Is constructive cooperation possible? Exclusive

Analytics 13:43 19.12.2016
 
 The prevailing trend of fragmentation and political instability in many societies around the globe as well as the increased competition for spheres of influence among key world powers undoubtedly pose new security challenges to NATO. Among those challenges is an increasingly assertive and coercive Russia, who violated the norms of international law by interfering in the territorial integrity of the neighboring Ukraine, and thus threatened the security in the Europe. As a result, NATO – as a regional security organization – has to reconsider its policies towards the prevention and management of conflicts affecting the members of the alliance as well as its neighbors.
 
 On the closing press-conference following the meeting of North-Atlantic Council in Foreign Ministers session in May 2016, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has once again underlined the importance of building cooperative relations with Russia. Mr. Stoltenberg emphasized that even though NATO does not seek confrontation, or another Cold war, the organization has sent a clear warning message to Russia by enhancing its deterrence and defense capabilities through deployment of multinational military troops in the Eastern countries of the Alliance. Nevertheless, whether Russia perceived this ‘clear message’ in the way it was intended by the alliance is certainly under the question. Considering the recent events, namely illegal annexation of Crimea, policies towards destabilization of Eastern Ukraine, downing of the Russian plane in the Turkish air space and Montenegro officially becoming a NATO member, the relations between the Alliance and Russia have been tense indeed. The imperialistic views of Russia and her understanding of the deployment of NATO military bases and troops as Western expansionary activities (and thus a threat to her authority) in the post-soviet region causes Russia to react aggressively. Due to unpredictability and opacity of the country’s policies, this reaction can lead to unprecedented implications for both NATO and Russia if not handled properly. 
 
One of the strategies currently being implemented by NATO is the so-called ‘defense/deterrence and dialogue’- a dual track approach towards political engagement with Russia, which lies in the reinforcement of collective defense in Europe (including creation of the new high readiness force and increased forward presence in the Eastern part of the alliance) along with the possibility of open political dialogue aimed at providing transparency and predictability of military activities and risk reduction. The latter is supposed to be realized by means of NATO-Russia Council. Indeed, throughout the history, NATO has been able to ensure the security of its allies by means of two intrinsically connected strategies: military – ensuring deterrence and defense as well as political – maintaining a dialogue. Under the current environment, in which Russia violates the territorial integrity of neighbors and uses military forces to destabilize the region, NATO has to strengthen its deterrence measures in order to ensure the security of the member states and persuade Russia into abiding the norms of international law by showing the unity and strength of the alliance.
 
In addition to the deterrence, opportunity for an open political dialogue is also one of the important pillars of the implemented strategy. The NATO – Russia Council, established as a platform for open political dialogue, is one of NATO’s measures to mitigate the tension and build the constructive relations between the two sides. Unfortunately, the Council has an irreciprocal nature. Since the crisis in Ukraine, the environment for dialogue has significantly deteriorated. The big words from Moscow on the necessity of peace and cooperation unfortunately contradict the actions of Russian government, reflecting the obvious discrepancy between words and deeds from the Russian side. This leads to a surge in the level of uncertainty and concerns among the members of the alliance as well as Russian neighboring states.
 
Still, one may raise a question of whether the expansion of NATO to the east (by deployment of military troops in Balkans and further to the eastern part of the alliance) as well as the new membership of Montenegro will further aggravate the relations with Russia and subsequently diminish any chance for a constructive political dialogue with Moscow. The reaction of Russian politicians in regards to the Montenegro membership in NATO has been explicitly expressed; they accused NATO of fuelling the conflict in Europe. Therefore it questions how NATO can be sure that the enhanced collective defense/deterrence pillar of the current strategy will persuade Moscow into being open to the political dialogue? Indeed, considering the Russia’s willful tendency to misinterpret and misperceive NATO’s activities, it is very important to maintain the balance between the military strength deterrence and political dialogue in order not to trigger an open confrontation, which definitely won’t favor any of the parties.
 
Nevertheless, it should not also be forgotten that the current deterrence/defense strategy is first of all a necessary and rightful response from NATO to Russian illegal annexation of Crimea and destabilization policies in the Eastern Ukraine. Thus, the given approach has been in a certain way the least-evil and crucial solution aimed at curbing Russian’s imperial appetite to ensure the security of the Europe. It is the best expected outcome that Russia would eventually realize the only way to ‘benefit’ in the current circumstances is through cooperation, not confrontation.
 
 Considering the current state of affairs between the country and the alliance, the perspectives of cooperation build on transparency seem to be rather unrealistic even in the long-term. The reasons for that vary from Russia’s misperception, unwillingness to give up the imperialistic views, to overestimation of her significance as a hegemonic power. Therefore, the question is still open whether NATO will be able to build the political dialogue based on cooperation and constructive discussion with Russia or military deterrence would turn out to be the only way to constrain Russia. Still, building of the political dialogue is of significant importance for both sides, as it is an opportunity to clear up all those misinterpretations, misperceptions and miscalculations that lead to Russia’s aggressive reaction towards the activities of the alliance. 
 
 Political dialogue promoting transparency and predictability especially in terms of implemented military policies is indeed the only way to avoid any open confrontation, which has the potential to grow into a new Cold war. Nevertheless, the cooperation is impossible unless both sides are clear with their intentions, which is a very rare case in the international politics especially considering that one of the parties repeatedly violates the agreements and the main norms of international law.  Besides, unpredictability and in certain cases irrationality of Russia’s actions cast doubts on whether the country is capable of maintaining an open dialogue. 
 
 One thing for sure, deterrence without political dialogue can lead to provocations and misinterpretations, which in turn will result in even more instability and insecurity in the region. Institutionally- based security built on rule of law and backed up by military power is essential in the current situation; otherwise there will be a high probability of returning to the balance-of-power game that won’t end up well for any of the sides involved. Therefore, guaranteeing the balance between deterrence and dialogue and avoiding the competition for spheres of influence must be prioritized tasks for NATO should the Alliance wish to achieve the successful outcome of the strategy.

By Regsana Kerimova – Master candidate at ADA University

 
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