1138 civilians have died last month in Aleppo after Assad and his supporters’ clashes versus Syrian opposition. Innocent people’s remaining stranded among guns, farewell speeches of citizens exhibit the seriousness of the situation. Though, ceasefire agreement has been signed with the mediation of Turkey and Russia in July 13, nobody can guarantee that it won’t be as fragile as previous ones.
Above all, we have to accept that proxy wars are being played by great powers. Countries such as Turkey, USA, Russia and Iran are giving financial and military support to certain organizations instead of direct intervention.
Aleppo is a very important city for the great powers. However, Syrian government announced the capture of the city, conflict in this region does not seem to be finish so easily. As a matter of fact, Syrian opposition, known as Free Syrian Army, has captured ISIS-seized Jarabulus with the Operation Euphrates Shield (Turkish: Fırat Kalkanı Harekâtı), initiated by Turkey in August, controlled Azez-Jarabulus and Mare-Jarabulus line and withstood to Al-Bab. There are several important details.
First, we need to explain why Turkey supports Syrian opposition. Turkish cities which has been under ISIS threat, had a deep breath after Firat Kalkani operation and ISIS’s evacuation from the border. Turkey's aim is to take Al-Bab bck from the ISIS and remove away the organization from the region. Already in the negotiations with Russia there was a guarantee not to descend further south from Al-Bab.
Why is Al-Bab important?
At the beginning of Operation Euphrates Shield, ISIS lost Jarabulus to Syrian opposition. They had already lost Manbij, east from Jarabulus, to YPG two weeks before. ISIS had to leave these regions and sheltered to Al-Bab. Terrorists are using this region to communicate with self-proclaimed capital Raqqa.
On the other side, if YPG seizes Al-Bab, will be able to establish a link between Syrian cities Afrin and Kobane which are under their own control. Turkey’s first aim is, beyond ISIS, not to allow YPG to strengthen in Syria. Because strong enemy along their border would be an obvious threat. Moreover, Turkey seeks to provide its security further by attacking Manbij, after taking over Al-Bab. Of course, they could face USA, because US considers YPG as an important ally against ISIS. But on the other side, there are claims that Turkey and US have agreed to remove YPG from Manbij. Nevertheless, the credibility of United States is debatable on Turkey’s perspective. Also, while Turkey emphasizes YPG as a branch of PKK, internationally regarded as a terrorist organization, the thoughts of United States do not overlap with Turkey in this regard.
What do Assad and allies want?
It is obvious that the struggle given by Assad is a fight for the state power. The question is what are the targets of Russia and Iran, which support Assad, in the region?
Russia
Russian government representatives told that their main objectives are to fight against terrorism. But it is impossible to believe that the situation in Syria is so simple.
Russia has been in good ties - despite a break in Putin's first presidency - with Syria since Hafiz Assad (father of current president). Of course, these relationships are not just so-called. Russia provides more than 70 percent of Syria's weapons imported from foreign states. In addition, Russia's only military base in the Middle East is located in the province of Tartus in Syria. This base is accepted as a gateway to the Mediterranean for Russia. The overthrow of the Assad government will mean that Russia will lose its only military base in this region.
Iran
Generally, we can tell that Iran has a sectarian struggle in Syria. In a sense, Iran does not want to change the status quo because Assad is close to them as being Shiite. Likewise Iran, like Moscow, has good economic and political relations with Syria. Sunni government close to Saudi Arabia or Turkey, may collapse everything in terms of Iran. Therefore, Iran will continue to support the Assad government with Shiite militias such as Hezbollah and Hashdi Shabi.