Fitch: US tariff hike will have minimal impact on Azerbaijani banks

Foreign Policy 10:12 24.04.2025

Banks in emerging markets in the EMEA region are facing varying but generally limited impacts from the tightening of the US government's tariff policy and the associated uncertainty in the trade and financial sector.

EDnews informs that, this is stated in a report by the international rating agency Fitch Ratings.

The agency stated that the level of impact depends primarily on the extent to which the economies of the region's countries will be affected by the tightening of the tariff policy in the US,including the impact on banks in these countries, as well as the level of volatility in global markets.Fitch Ratings noted that the direct impact through exports to the US remains insignificant.

"Oil-exporting countries will suffer from the fall in oil prices. This is an indirect consequence of the impact of tariffs due to the slowdown in global economic growth. At the same time, oil-importing countries with limited export volumes to the US may partially benefit from the lower oil price," the agency believes.

The report notes that adverse economic outcomes, including a slowdown in GDP growth, typically have a negative impact on the banking sector through reduced lending rates and possible deterioration in asset quality.

In addition, refinancing risks and borrowing costs could increase if investors shift their stance towards emerging market economies under a “risk-off” scenario.The agency’s analysts believe that the direct impact of tariffs in the CIS+ region is minimal, as exports to the US are limited.

“Armenia and Georgia are oil importers, while banks in oil-exporting countries such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan generally have low dependence on the oil and gas sector and have significant liquidity buffers,” the report says.

According to Fitch, refinancing costs for state-owned banks in countries with high external liabilities, particularly Uzbekistan, may increase. However, these risks are offset by government support and the long-term nature of external debt, which is mainly provided by international financial institutions on concessional terms.

The rating agency noted that the US dollar weakened slightly after the tariff increase, but if this trend changes, the possible devaluation of local currencies could worsen the quality of assets in countries with a high level of dollarization of the banking system.

"However, most banks can cope with moderate losses, and the governments of the countries of the region can support national currencies if necessary," the agency's experts emphasized. 

ING Group, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believes that Azerbaijan is significantly protected from the direct impact of US trade tariffs. At the same time, according to the international rating agency Moody's, the US tariff policy could create new opportunities for transit shipments through Azerbaijan.

Madina Mammadova\\EDnews

IEPF issued a statement regarding Azerbaijani children at the UN Human Rights Council

News line

IEPF has started a new project to support local NGOs
16:05 04.06.2025
Zelenskyy says Ukraine has invitation to attend NATO summit
12:03 03.06.2025
Houthis say they attacked Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport
11:57 03.06.2025
Pakistan thanks Azerbaijan for support in localizing gas resources
11:50 03.06.2025
TPAO joins production sharing agreement for Shafag-Asiman offshore block
11:43 03.06.2025
US tariffs on steel, aluminum imports of 50% to take effect on June 4
11:50 31.05.2025
Lachin Rising: A Brotherhood of Steel Between Pakistan, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan
15:02 30.05.2025
"Türkiye welcomes Azerbaijan's efforts for peace in South Caucasus"
14:53 27.05.2025
Trump could exit Ukraine talks
13:56 27.05.2025
North Korea says US 'Golden Dome' risks 'space nuclear war'
12:01 27.05.2025
Hikmat Hajiyev meets with NATO Deputy Secretary General in Brussels
11:10 23.05.2025
Foreign diplomats visit Agdam Conference Center
21:35 21.05.2025
New Secondary School Opened in Gakh by Heydar Aliyev Foundation
21:22 21.05.2025
Azerbaijani and Turkish Presidents Meet One-on-One in Nakhchivan
21:03 21.05.2025
Opening ceremony of World Cup held in Baku
20:57 21.05.2025
Pashinyan, EU Envoys Discuss Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace
19:52 21.05.2025
New Deputy Appointed to Nakhchivan Education Minister
19:20 21.05.2025
Nakhchivan marks Türkiye’s National Sovereignty and Children’s Day
17:42 21.05.2025
F.Shafiyev: Azerbaijan-Türkiye unity is example of effective cooperation
17:35 21.05.2025
Azerbaijan to build circular power link in Karabakh
17:28 21.05.2025
Azerbaijan, Italy discuss prospects for defense cooperation
17:19 21.05.2025
Ilham Aliyev addresses conference on Western Azerbaijan in Ankara
17:14 21.05.2025
Ilham Aliyev: Azerbaijan and Türkiye uphold international law for regional stability
17:03 21.05.2025
President of Cuba congratulates President Ilham Aliyev
16:58 21.05.2025
Azerbaijani President: Digitalization of the Middle Corridor is a priority
16:53 21.05.2025
Erdogan: Ilham Aliyev will be remembered as a peacemaker
16:48 21.05.2025
TDT: Azerbaijan is very important for the development of the Turkic world
16:43 21.05.2025
Georgian minister discusses cooperation with Azerbaijani ambassador
16:35 21.05.2025
Azerbaijan, Türkiye mull prospects for development of military cooperation
16:29 21.05.2025
Azerbaijan and Croatia hold political consultations
16:24 21.05.2025
GlobE Network work plan for 2025 approved in Baku
16:18 21.05.2025
Talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia may be held at level of heads of state
12:21 19.05.2025
A Meeting of Nobles exhibition to open in Shusha
12:15 19.05.2025
Azerbaijan increases construction by over 2026
12:09 19.05.2025
How does space "sound"? -NASA created "music" from the sounds of black hole
12:03 19.05.2025
Azerbaijan joins Fez Festival of World Sacred Music
11:57 19.05.2025
Azerbaijan’s parliamentary delegation starts official visit to Spain
11:53 19.05.2025
EU countries agree on big defence fund with Azerbaijan- Diplomat Says
11:48 19.05.2025
Azerbaijan,Türkiye Hold Talks on Education Sector Cooperation
11:42 19.05.2025
Azerbaijani delegation attends Russia-Islamic World: Kazan Forum 2025
11:36 19.05.2025
Hamısı