"Russia does not have the capacity to derail this settlement" Ahmet Sozen - Exclusive

Interviews 10:51 23.01.2017
Professor Ahmet Sözen  is professor of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Eastern Mediterranean University. He has extensive experience in Peace-building and democratization processes and has participated in negotiations about Cyprus conflict.  Turkish Cypriot political expert gave a exclusive interview to Eurasia Diary regarding Cyprus negotiations in Geneva. 
 
The Conference on Cyprus held first and second session in Geneva, Switzerland on 12-19 January at the level of deputies and experts. The working group was established during the high-level meeting on 12 January for the settlement of Cyprus conflict.  Conference had aim to identify specific questions which are related to the issues of security, guarantees and instruments in Cyprus. 
 
 
Eurasia Diary: Determination of territorial disputes, power-sharing and security guaranty are essential issues for the settlement of Cyprus conflict.  In your opinion, why haven’t the two Cypriot sides been able to reach agreement over a resolution of these issues for 40 years? 
 
Ahmet Sözen: The inter-negotiations have been carried out on and off since 1968. Since late 1970s, the two communities have agreed on paper that they will solve the Cyprus problem based on the principle of a federal state. The supposed federal state will be bi-zonal with regard to the territorial aspects and bi-communal with regard to the constitutional aspects. However, the negotiations over the last four decades did not produce a breakthrough. One of the most important factors hindering a solution is the fact that Greek Cypriot side has not been ready for federal solution. In other words, the Greek Cypriot side has not fully accepted a power-sharing arrangement with the Turkish Cypriots in a politically-equal manner. The UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in his report to the Security Council after the failed Cyprus referenda in 2004 asked the question if "the Greek Cypriots are prepared to share power with the Turkish Cypriots in a federation" and that question remains today.
 
Eurasia Diary: From your point of view, should the task of determining territorial lines between the two Cypriot sides be handled by the United Nations or consensus between the two sides? 
 
 Ahmet Sözen: So far, the task of determining territorial lines between the two Cypriot sides had been handled by the United Nations. This was the case in the Butros Ghali's Set of Ideas in 1992 and in the UN Comprehensive Settlement for Cyprus (also known as the Annan Plan) in 2004. However, personally I believe that, instead of coming from a third party, if the territorial adjustment between the two sides is carried out through the consensus of two sides, then it would be more natural and sustainable. The local ownership of the settlement would be stronger in case of consensus on the local level.
 
Eurasia Diary: Why Guarantor states –Turkey, Greece and Britain have not reached any successful agreement in negotiations over future of Cyprus?
 
Ahmet Sözen: Firsts of all, the guarantee issue was not the biggest issue in negotiations until recently. For example, during the 2002-2004 negotiations that led to the Annan plan, the issue of guarantees was not thoroughly negotiated. It was agreed by all sides, by and large, that the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee and the Treaty of Alliance would continue mutatis mutandis. (i.e., updated to the current situation). 
Secondly, since the beginning of the first round of current talks in 2008' the issue of (external) "security and guarantees" was left to the very end of the process where the two Cypriot sides would reach enough convergences (tentative agreements) on all aspects of the internal issues of the Cyprus problem. Hence, it is only very recently- in December 2016 that the two sides have stated that they have reached enough convergences on the internal issues of Cyprus problem. Therefore, it is now - since the start of Cyprus Conference in Geneva on the 12 January- that the Guarantor powers started negotiating the external security and the guarantees of the Cyprus conflict.
 
Eurasia Diary: According to some analysts, it is not in the interest of Russia to have the Cyprus conflict settled peacefully.  What can you say about this? 
 
Ahmet Sözen: Well, one has to look at the words and the deeds of Russia in order to understand whether Russia supports a Cyprus settlement. Russia's discourse has always been along the line of supporting a federal solution in Cyprus. However, more recently, some observers have been saying that there is an incompatibility between Russian words and deeds on the issue of the Cyprus conflict. On the other hand, Russia is not an immediate actor within the first circle in Cyprus. The two Cypriot sides, Turkey, Greece and the UK form the first circle. If these five manage the find a solution that would satisfy them all, then, Russia I believe does not have the capacity to derail this settlement.

By Yunis Abdullayev

 

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