Josef Janning, expert on European affairs in the European Council on Foreign relations gave an exclusive interview to "Eurasia Diary".
He answered the questions concerning the future of the European Union and other urgent topics.
Eurasia Diary: Serious problems of Terrorism, immigration, as well as recent Trump’s victory invigorate far-right parties to assume power in some European countries. Could you predict that the rise of far-right forces will jeopardize the future of the European Union?
Josef Janning: In my view, the growing belief in the need for renationalization poses is one of the most difficult challenges for the European Union. This view reaches well beyond the far right parties, but it stems from their rhetoric. It maintains that the pooling of sovereignty in the EU is the source of current problems as it precedes and exaggerates the effects of globalization.
Eurasia Diary: From point of your view, next election for the presidential post in France will affect fortune of the European Union?
Josef Janning: The elections in France are of critical significance because of the role of France in the EU. In particular, the relationship between Germany and France, the core of European cohesion, could suffer from a victory of Marine Le Pen. Should Paris and Berlin part ways, the EU could break apart quite easily. Therefore, Germany would try its best to continue a partnership with France under any President the French voters will elect.
Eurasia Diary: According to recent polls, Party for Freedom which is led by nationalist politician, Greet Wilders will be second largest party in the parliament of the Netherlands. What can you say about this?
Josef Janning: Actually, Wilders’ PVV could become the strongest party in parliament. In the Netherlands, one of the most open countries in continental Europe, the backlash against openness is rather strong. Many voters do not see the benefits to their country but focus on the challenges, driven by populists who tell them they could get rid of all the risks but keep all the benefits. It puzzles longtime policy analysts like me to see how otherwise capable citizens are ready to believe in utter simplification.
Eurasia Diary: Mass Media in Europe and the USA have been speculating that far-right parties are backed by Putin government with financial and political means. What is your opinion regarding this?
Josef Janning: In my view, the Russian factor is largely overestimated. It seems to be a scapegoat to deal with a growing distance between “elites” and “the people”. I have little doubt that from Russian soil or fueled by Russian sources anti-establishment actors are being supported or encouraged. However, the impact is rather limited. Such activities can only exploit wrong-doing or mismanagement – so playing by the rules is a good protection. Furthermore, such activities could only have effect in an environment of great uncertainty or fear. In itself, Russia is marginal to domestic politics in Western Europe – its political, social or economic model has no attraction to Europeans. Far right parties may like the top-down leadership style and speak highly of the nationalist attitude of the Russian leadership, but none of them would want to live in the shadow of Russia.kjlkjljkl
Eurasia Diary: Do you believe inviolability of democracy and peace in Europe?
Josef Janning: No, I do not. The current state of European integration is more fragile than many believe who still talk about the specter of a European super-state governed by Brussels technocracy. In reality, there is no such state or super-bureaucracy. Rather, the EU depends existentially on the importance attached to it by member states and the commitment of its members to the EU’s institutions and politics. When the levels of significance and engagement break down, the EU could hardly survive. In consequence, a new nationalism would likely endanger peace and prosperity in Europe. Democracy will suffer from authoritarian trends and a longing for strong leaders, but it will suffer most from the anti-pluralist sentiment of the current wave of populism. It's notion of the “true will of the people” or the idea that a majority vote stands above constitutional law are the most serious challenges to European democracy.
These days, this context is better understood among a number of governments. The readiness of keep Europe together and capable of acting is growing.
by Yunis Abdullayev
