Francis Sealey, the founder of GlobalNet21 public engagement organization gave exclusive interview to Eurasia Diary concerning the second round of the presidential election in France. GlobalNet21 has aim to uses social networks to bring new communities and audiences in discussing some of big issues that affect us in this century. Francis Sealey is also a former Producer at the BBC and he  has extensive experience about local communities and the use of social media.

Eurasia Diary: From point of your view, how will results of second round of presidential election affect the foreign policy of France?

Francis Sealey:  Emmanuel Macron’s victory would see a more stable EU in the short term but one where France seeks more equality with Germany especially once Britain leaves the EU. France’s policy if elected will be to ensure that France has much more influence in the EU and make it less Germany dominated. A resurgent France may then try to punch above its weight on the world stage (as Britain does now) or it could use its new confidence through soft power to become a moderating influence. Again the jury is out on that.

A Marie Le Penn victory could lead to a further resurgence of nationalism and trade wars and thus a more aggressive foreign policy by France. It will also create tension between France and the Arab world if she cracks down on immigration and unjustly treats the migrants already living in France. This again could create an inflammable situation. It is difficult to know at this stage how she will moderate her policies once in power.

Eurasia Diary; How can you anticipate the future of the European Union after presidential election in France?

Francis Sealey: The future of the EU will depend on several factors and the French Presidential election is only one of these. There is the fact of Brexit, the British General Election, the German Election and of course Italy as well. So we cannot be sure of the outcome.

However the French election shows that in some ways we are between the devil and the deep blue sea. An Emmanuel Macron victory could temporarily cement the EU and make it harder for the UK in its negotiations. It might also make the reform needed of the EU more difficult. In one sense it will be a sign that the Centre is fighting back against the populist surge as it did in the Netherlands. This will provide more stability but only in the short term unless Macron adopts a policy to reform the EU and make decision making closer to citizens. That remains to be seen.

A Marie Le Penn victory could see us descend into rising nationalism in Europe as nations compete with each other over trade and adopt “nation first” policies. That could create more instability in a world already in turmoil and that could lead to conflict.

Eurasia Diary; Japanese anti-vuris firm Trend Micro have researched that the campaign of the presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron has been targeted by Russian hackers.  From your opinion,  will Russia dare to meddle in  the second round of the French presidential election?

Francis Sealey: I have no idea if the Russians will meddle in this election, as I have no idea if they did in the American one. People who are making accusations on this often do so to support there like or dislike of Russia with no hard evidence. However what I do know is that with the age of big data it will be increasingly easy to influence our elections not just by affecting the ballot but also by modifying the behavior of the electorate. The most powerful players here are not necessarily nation states but the big social media companies and corporations that own them. They will have enormous control that could adversely affect our democracy. Some may eventually argue that the information received from big data – the accumulation of all our behaviours deduced from our total online activity is a better reflection of what we want than are elections. This is the big danger to us. Unfortunately, Governments are blaming each other for interference as part of the geo political blame game rather than confronting the power of large social media companies.

by Yunis Abdullayev