Only two days after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed diplomatic relations with Qatar for its alleged support of "terrorist organisations", Turkey's parliament has ratified military deals allowing its troops to be deployed to a Turkish military base in Qatar. Azerbaijani analyst Rufiz Hafizoglu who is specialized in Arabic countries talking to Eurasia Diary interpreted the move as “show of power to neighboring countries”.
Eurasia Diary: What is the message of Turkey behind this decision?
Rufiz Hafizoglu: It is not a new thing. Turkey set up a military base in Qatar, its first such installation in the Middle East, as part of an agreement signed in 2014. I should note that following Turkey’s move Pakistan also made similar statement and plans to deploy in Qatar 20000 troops. With this decision Turkey is not only showing solidarity for Qatar but also demonstrating power to neighboring states.
Eurasia Diary: What was the real reason for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and other countries for cutting off diplomatic relations with Qatar?
Rufiz Hafizoglu: First of all, I would like to mention that the main purpose of Saudi-led sanctions against Qatar is that Qatar pursues more active and independent policy in the region and gives serious financial and logistic support to “Moslem Brotherhood” organization which is not perceived well in Arab countries. Even though this “Moslem Brotherhood” was formed in Egypt it is world scale organization. In some countries the members of this organization operate secretly, in others in a normal way. This organization has become serious political threat in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE. It is necessary to admit that this organization has a lot of supporters in aforementioned countries.
Eurasia Diary: Looking at the recent developments can we say that Qatar is an important ally of Turkey in the region?
Rufiz Hafizoglu: In order to know how Qatar is important for Turkey we should review the economical and political cooperation between two countries and look at the relations of Turkey with other Arab countries in the region. In fact, currently Qatar is an only ally of Turkey among Arab countries. Of course the relationships between Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also normal. However the Ankara – Doha relations are above the relations of Ankara with Riyadh. From other side economical relations between Ankara and Doha continue with its current level.
Qatar has $ 335 billion global investment. In Turkey Qatar have about 20 billion investment assets. Since 2015 Qatar has acquired several banks in Turkey (ONB Finansbank, Abank) and such companies like Digiturk, BMC and Boyner. Only the investments of Turkish companies in Qatar amounts $ 14 billion. In other words it is not economically and politically suitable for Turkey to lose Qatar.
Eurasia Diary: Will deployment of Turkish troops in Qatar affect the relations of Turkey with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and other Arab states?
Rufiz Hafizoglu: As you know except for Saudi Arabia the relation of Turkey neither with Egypt, nor with UAE is not at the desired level. As for Egypt after general Abdel Fattah el-Sisi ousted the elected president Mahammad Mursi there was a tension relationship between Cairo and Ankara. President of Turkey did not accept Sisi as the legitimate president. Currently the relationship between Turkey and Egypt is in the lower level. Regarding UAE, at first glance the relation of Turkey with this country looks normal. However, it is not so at all. The thing is that several times Abu-Dhabi accused Ankara for supporting terror. In return Ankara has accused UAE for funding the failed coup attempt in Turkey. But it does not mean that Qatar crisis can be resolved in military way. All sides perfectly understand the impossibility of that.
Eurasia Diary: The four states severing ties said they would close air and sea transport links with Qatar. The closure of Qatar’s only land border with Saudi Arabia threatens food supplies to the import dependent state. How do you think will Qatar be forced to compromise for finding the solution?
Rufiz Hafizoglu: Compromise is not on the agenda yet. At least because the Doha officially stated that they still believe of solution this crisis through dialogue. From other side Qatar is not alone on the scene. Iran, Algeria, Turkey and Pakistan still supports Qatar. Confidently can be said that isolating Qatar by Arab states can also reflect on Syrian crisis. Probably it will be known in the near days. I think that if Qatar crisis reflects on Syria, the balance of forces in Syria can change completely.
