UK Parliament and the Brexit deal: Six possible scenarios - British political journalist - EXCLUSIVE | Eurasia Diary -

25 June, Tuesday

UK Parliament and the Brexit deal: Six possible scenarios - British political journalist - EXCLUSIVE

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By Anastasia Lavrina, Eurasia Diary

Saturday, November 25, the leaders of the European Union finally agreed a BREXIT deal after months of negotiation. The agreement on the UK's withdrawal and future relations was agreed within less than an hour’s discussion while the negotiations were continuing 20 months. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called the Brexit withdrawal agreement EU leaders approved Sunday the "best and only deal possible".

However, every decision has positive and negative aspects and this agreement is not an exception. What should be expected next and how it will affect the domestic and foreign policy of Great Britain?

Adel Darwish is a Westminster-based British political journalist, a veteran Fleet Street reporter, author, historian, broadcaster, and political commentator thinks that it is the best deal for the EU not for UK, Eurasia Diary reports.

‘The fact that 27 leaders approved in 37 minutes (including ceremonial notes) proves the point. As it gives each leader under 80 seconds to read 20 pages and approves it, they must have a had a brief this is a good deal for EU. Since the EU had no interest in making a deal but to destroy Brexit in order to stop any other country doing the same. At the same time, it is not good for UK as there is no unilateral leave option as it is the case now with article 50.

Theresa May managed to unite people who normally hate each other against her: demagogues like Scotland first minister Nicola Sturgeon, Lunatics like green party leader Caroline Lucas & the fanatic feminist MP Stella Creasy, with old-fashioned right-wing orange order Democratic Unionist Party in North Ireland, with labour left like Dennis Skinner & the very conservative Etonian Jacob  Rees-Mogg etc.. All in one front to reject a deal that the only people, beside herself, smile about the Irish Republican Sein Fein and the EU commissars .... she made history.’

The agreement on the UK's withdrawal and future relations leads to several important changes that will not positively affect the UK foreign policy.

‘It stops the UK making any trade deals with any other country, especially USA, as president Trump said. It also strengthens EU with their idea of one European army which weakens NATO. It gives Spain more say in British Gibraltar and Dublin more influence over North Ireland and it threatens our UK unity and make us, rule takers from unelected undemocratic EU commission without having a say since we have no commissioner there’.

The UK EU membership referendum, also known as Brexit referendum, took place on 23 June 2016 when England voted for Brexit, by 51.9% to 48.1%. After two years the current situation still divides the population but now it disappoints majority (52.4% of population).      

‘The current situation devastates the costal economy as it will give chance to countries like France to have access to 60% of fish in British water putting our fishermen out of work, it affects the agricultural community with the current common agricultural policy. But those who back remain in EU will never be satisfied and will call for another referendum which causes more division. On choices straight between status quo and May's deal: at present, you still have the option to quit the EU membership; with a new deal it does not contain an article 50 option, i.e. there is no unilateral leave option’.

The next step after agreement on the UK's withdrawal and future relations is for MPs to vote on the deal, which is expected to happen on 12 December after five days of debate. If they pass it, the European Parliament will get a vote before Brexit day next March. However, is it so easy to get the support from the parliament?

Adel Darwish says that in practical terms UK Prime Minister Theresa May is in total denial.

‘Even with the government whips classic bribes like offering knighthoods and more spending in their constituencies, and blackmail (from the old blackbook where they keep scandals and stories to embarrass MPs ) and even getting the odd rebel too drunk and walking him semi-conscious to the right lobby to stop them walking into the wrong lobby, those tactics aren't likely to work this time given the current numbers in the commons (100 MPs  out of  315) will not support’.

Nevertheless, according to the expert, there are six possible scenarios of UK Parliament and the Brexit deal:

1- Labour plays a tactical game and vote yes to the deal to split the conservative party and cause problems. But over 140 of the 257 labour MPs are Blairites who will not follow the party whips as they dislike Corbyn.

2- The Conservative Whips manage with some labour traitors and bribed ones to manage to get the deal through by one or two votes, which will be disastrous for UK foreign trade and cause civil disobedience.

3- The deal rejected and Theresa May goes back to Brussels with extended period and the commission autocracy (the commission will be getting a permission from Angela Merkel who is likely to agree) saying yes of course given that European Parliament and another 27 parliaments need to rubber stamp it. This will mean the UK keeps on paying a huge amount of money to EU budget for a long time.

4- The deal rejected and Theresa May resigns and leaving with no deal. This not very attractive given that Whitehall (acted like a fifth column) deliberately did not prepare for a plan B.

5- General election resulting in a hung parliament which is not good for the £ pound or the economy.

6- Unlikely but possible the two parties splitting with a new conservative with another anti-EU grouping which after election go into coalition with Democratic Union Party. UK Independence Party governing with a small margin (about 328 seats to 322) with endless problems with EU, Spain, Irish Republic, quarrels with France overfishing and Scotland who want another independence vote (although Scottish National Party will see their seats reduced to about 30)’.

Interviewed by Anastasia Lavrina, specially for Eurasia Diary

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