Last week, US President Donald Trump made statement on tha announcement of the reduction in the number of US troops in Iraq. He said the number of US troops would be reduced from 5,200 to 3,500.
This step by the United States will affect the geopolitical situation in the region. American military analyst Rick Frankona told Eurasia Diary.
- Is there any necessity to keep US troops in Iraq, while the new government has already been set up and terror groups have been weakened?
- The need for US troops on the ground in Iraq continues to decline. That is not to say there are still systemic problems in the new Iraqi government. Mustafa al-Kadhimi looks good on paper, but he faces an uphill battle with the continuing corruption caused by the broken muhasasa political patronage system.
As I have said before, the real challenge for al-Kadhimi will be the Iranian influence in the country in general, and the Iranian-trained, equipped, and advised Shi’a militias, the so-called Popular Mobilization Units, in particular. As long as Iran controls these forces, despite nominally being part of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), Iraq will continue to be a vassal state of Tehran.
That said, improvements in the Iraqi Army and other security units, especially the Counter Terrorism Service, have allowed the Iraqis to take a toll on the remnants of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) to the point that a continued American/coalition troop presence is no longer required.
Not only is it likely no longer required, it is increasingly not viable. Since the US killing of Iranian IRGC Qods Force chief Qasem Soleimani, these Iranian proxy militias have launched a series of attacks on US facilities and the logistics that support them. While they seem lately to be harassing attacks that do not cause casualties – the US responds I kind when that happens – it does make keeping troops there challenging.
Challenging, and to what end? What remains of ISIS should be able to be addressed by the ISF with US/coalition air and intelligence support. If the US needs a troop presence on the ground in the region, there are other less-volatile venues.
After ISIS, I would advise the US Administration to continue and even ramp up sanctions and economic pressure on Iran. At some point, the expense of maintaining their proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are going to be a problem. Certainly the Iranian people are fed up with it.
- Why is President Trump withdrawing troops from the region while Russia and Turkey increase their influence in the Middle East?
- President Trump campaigned on ending “America’s forever wars” – specifically Afghanistan and Iraq. We no longer are dependent on the Middle East for our energy needs. I think we need a series of alliances with countries that have the same interests as the US (countering Iran, for example), but not being involved in wars that serve no US national interest.
Take Afghanistan. What was the mission back in 2001 – yes, nineteen years ago? It was to remove/defeat al-Qa’idah. That mission was mostly accomplished when the organization fled to other areas. Once Afghanistan was no longer an al-Qa’idah venue, what was the mission?
It became nation building – trying to establish some system of representative self-rule. This has been a colossal waste of time, blood, and treasure. I know, people will point to the Marshall Plan and Europe following World War II. Apples and oranges. The reconstruction of Europe was just that, re-establishing existing democracies and republics, restoring once existent institutions.
Trying to create that in Afghanistan out of whole cloth was insane.
Russia is trying to re-assert itself in the Middle East, and even parts of Africa. Syria was the first step – now we see them meddling in Libya, selling arms to the Egyptians in a big way. I expect they will get bogged down as they did before. Syria will remain a forward military operations base – short of regime change, the US was never going to be able to stop that.
Turkey represents a different problem. It is important that Turkey remain part of NATO – its unique geographic location imparts a key strategic role in potential containment of Russia.
- Do you have any expectations for the future after the withdrawal of US troops? What kind of mechanisms will be implemented by the US instead of keeping its own troops there?
- As I said earlier, I view the withdrawal of US ground troops from Iraq as a positive development. As long as the Iraqis are able to continue the eradication of ISIS in the remaining areas in which it still can operate, there really is no need for American forces on the ground. As Iraqi intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities improve, and the Iraqi Air Force and Army Aviation take over more of the anti-ISIS operations, the need for foreign assistance – including the Iranians – decreases.
The United States is not leaving the region. There will still be forces in the Gulf for some time to come. As long as Iran poses a threat to the Gulf Arabs – especially Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates – they will continue to support the presence of American forces in the region.
Inteviewed by Ulvi Ahmedli