Military confrontation around Nagorno-Karabakh worrying Tbilisi Georgian expert

Interviews 10:00 28.09.2020

Emil Avdaliani, non-resident fellow at the Georgian think tank, Geocase, specializes on wider Eurasia with a particular focus on South Caucasus and Russia, relations with China and the US.

No description available.

- First, please tell us, how did Georgian government react to July clashes at the Armenia-Azerbaijan border?

Georgian reaction was straightforward and similar to previous cases: avoiding being pulled into the Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes and acrimonious diplomatic exchanges and holding direct diplomatic contact with both Baku and Yerevan with the aim to facilitate the minimization of the effects of the fighting.

- The situation at the line of contact and the border is unstable and still remains intensive. From your opinion, if the large-scale offensive military operations broke out between the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan, how will it affect Georgia?

The Nagorno-Karabakh issue is of vital importance to Georgia. As one could expect in a region as unstable as the South Caucasus, even a low-level fighting could explode into a regional-level military confrontation. This has worried the official Tbilisi ever since the beginning of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

However, the July fighting was even more troublesome for Tbilisi. First, the Tovuz Region of Azerbaijan borders on a part of Georgia’s south-east border; second, large infrastructure (pipelines, a major railway, roads) runs through the region and connects the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea region. A Georgia benefits financially as a transit state and quite naturally is interested in a quick de-escalation of Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions.

But Georgia is also aware of its limits in the event of military confrontation on its southern border. First it would be unable to join any confronting side. At the same time, it will be interested in upholding close relations with both parties as it could help limit the damage to the security of the region. Georgia will also try to limit the passage of any armoury through its territory.

- Parliament elections will be held in Georgia on October 31. Please tell us, what is an attitude of political parties in Georgia toward Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, and the relations with these neighbours?

An interesting feature of any pre-election period in Georgia is that few, if any, major political parties discuss regional geopolitics and how their foreign policy would differ in case of their coming to power. Surely, statements on foreign policy are made, but they are mostly limited to general discussion on the need to further pursue Georgia’s western integration or continue the same policy towards Russia. In-depth discussion on Nagorno-Karabakh does not take place and the conflict is mentioned rarely. Now more of internal issues such as economic situation, the pandemic effects and other issues related to the pre-election developments are being raised.

However, this does not mean that the state apparatus is not following the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. As I stated above, Georgia has strategic interests in the region and the responsible institutions within the government are closely watching any changes in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.

- Does Georgian society have potential to mediate in the strengthening of the peace process between communities of Armenians and Azerbaijanis?

This is a difficult question. Obviously Georgia’s geopolitical importance is not as large as is usually necessary for a country to pursue a mediating role. Moreover, Georgians also remember how even a large Iran was unable to pursue a successful mediation work between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 1990s. Even Russia is often unable to strike a balance between the two sides (it often causes criticism from Baku). These realities limit chances for a potentially successful mediation headed by the Georgian side. Perhaps Tbilisi could serve as a venue for mediation efforts (or talks), but beyond that I am quite sceptical about Georgia’s active diplomatic role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

Interviewed by Yunis Abdullayev

Azerbaijan takes measures to turn Khankandi into safe city - VİDEO

News line

Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
15:55 28.03.2024
Türkiye plays an important role between Russia and Ukraine - says political scientist Ismail Cingoz
15:45 28.03.2024
2 schoolchildren detained in France on suspicion of sending bomb threats
15:35 28.03.2024
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
15:26 28.03.2024
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
15:15 28.03.2024
Media: US did not transfer all information about terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall to Russia
15:00 28.03.2024
Movement ‘Together’ calls on Armenia’s parliamentary forces to express vote of no confidence in Pashinyan
14:41 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
14:32 28.03.2024
Le Pen accuses French government of fraud
14:22 28.03.2024
Armenian Government Grapples with Internal Division on Village Return Issue - Ishkhan Verdiyan talks on Ednews
14:12 28.03.2024
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
13:41 28.03.2024
Expert Ilyas Huseynov Predicts Peaceful Return of these territories to Azerbaijan
13:20 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
12:55 28.03.2024
Russian MFA concerned about upcoming Armenia-US-EU meeting
12:23 28.03.2024
Secret Points of Pashinyan's Meeting with French Representative: Is Peace Agreement Signing Imminent?
12:00 28.03.2024
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
11:47 28.03.2024
The US-Armenia-EU Joint Conference is a part of the pressure plan on Azerbaijan - MP Konul Nurullayeva
11:30 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
11:23 28.03.2024
CSTO chief: ‘Yerevan doesn’t participate in our work, but there are no statements about suspension’
11:13 28.03.2024
Ammunition found in Khankandi
Ammunition found in Khankandi
11:00 28.03.2024
Russia had been aware of preparation for terrorist attack at Crocus - says intelligience chief
10:46 28.03.2024
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
10:33 28.03.2024
Head of the SSS: France is inciting Armenia to a new war
10:21 28.03.2024
Are we in the brink of World War III? - Pundit talks on Ednews
10:10 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan's National Security: Reflecting on 105 Years of Defending Sovereignty
09:55 28.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev: Rasmussen fell in forgetfulness to attach payment to his report
09:35 28.03.2024
Hand grenades found in Kalbajar
09:25 28.03.2024
Titanic 'door' prop that kept Rose alive sells for $718,750
Titanic 'door' prop that kept Rose alive sells for $718,750
08:50 28.03.2024
Twitch's biggest streamer diagnosed with cancer diagnosis at 32
23:55 27.03.2024
Azerbaijan's former Minister of National Security passes away
22:41 27.03.2024
Russia has no unfriendly states, only unfriendly elites — Putin
22:25 27.03.2024
Erdogan vows to make efforts for implementation of UN resolution regarding Gaza
Erdogan vows to make efforts for implementation of UN resolution regarding Gaza
21:44 27.03.2024
Russian MFA: France's presence in the Caucasus is of an intelligence nature
21:00 27.03.2024
Record numbers of migrants arrive in UK in 2024
20:42 27.03.2024
Leo Docherty appointed new UK Minister of State for Armed Forces
Leo Docherty appointed new UK Minister of State for Armed Forces
19:34 27.03.2024
MFA: ‘We reject anti-Azerbaijani allegations in the report prepared by Friends of Armenia Network’
19:00 27.03.2024
Armenian Speaker: We are looking for people who consider those villages to be Armenian territory
18:42 27.03.2024
France evacuates over 170 nationals from Haiti
France evacuates over 170 nationals from Haiti
18:19 27.03.2024
Iran's Concerns Over Enclave Villages Return Highlight Geopolitical Complexities - Iranian political scientest talks on Ednews
18:00 27.03.2024
New details of the Crocus terrorist attack have been revealed - two suspects transited through Türkiye
17:33 27.03.2024
Hamısı