The unblocking of Armenia’s borders with neighboring states could actually harm Russia's position in the region Expert

Interviews 14:55 18.01.2021

The trilateral statement of 11 January signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia following four hour meetings held in Moscow in relation to the unblocking of all economic and transport communications between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Eurasia Diary conducted an interview with Emil Avdaliani, Professor at European University in Tbilisi, Georgia regarding the prospects of the trilateral statement of 11 January for the new economic circumstances in the South Caucasus.  

No description available.

What is a necessity of the trilateral statement to the strengthening of economic stability and prosperity in the region?

The statement was meant to show that Russia is firmly in charge of the post-war situation on the ground in Karabakh. This involves displaying Russia’s unshakeable military position and Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s willingness to cooperate with the Moscow. It also indicates that Russia sidelined the Western powers from the negotiation process and the only regional power it cooperates with is Turkey, which also experiences problems with the West.

Surely, the trilateral meeting in Moscow was also meant to work out the details behind the November 2020 agreement which ended the Second Karabakh War. We do not know much about the details Aliyev, Pashinyan and Putin discussed behind the closed doors, but it is safe to say that Russia is interested in pursuing the opening of new communication lines as a part of its aims to penetrate the South Caucasus and reach the Iranian and Turkish borders. This is important for economic reasons, but I believe a military component too is not less crucial, though it is doubtful that Azerbaijan will allow Russian arms be transited through its territory to Armenia.

The improvement of connectivity is always a good development. Armenia could benefit economically and some negotiations with Turkey could re-start as Baku might have fewer reasons to protest such a development. But much will depend on internal situation in Armenia and whether Russia is happy with Armenia-Turkey rapprochement. From a geopolitical point of view, a total unblocking of Armenia’s borders with the neighboring states could actually harm Russia’s position.

What will be attitude of Georgia and Turkey to this trilateral statement?

Georgia is worried that changes to the region’s connectivity patterns could damage the country’s transit potential. It held a near monopoly so far for regional infrastructure transit and the latest trilateral meeting in Moscow underlined the trend towards potential changes. Therefore, Georgia watched the trilateral summit with caution.

Turkey, I believe, regarded the summit positively. Surely, Ankara wanted to be at the negotiating table in Moscow, but overall the Turkish leadership sees that the statement once again underlined the necessity to open the corridor from the Nakhchivan exclave to the rest of Azerbaijan. As Turkey has already announced railway and pipeline projects to Nakhchivan, the emerging corridor would give Ankara a way to anchor its influence on the Caspian Sea.

Some experts noted that the restoration of economic and transport communications between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be impossible until the full settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. What do you think about this?

I believe a long-term solution to the conflict is necessary to have a whole-scale development of new communication and trade routes. However, this would not entirely prevent the operation of the announced railway lines and trade corridors. Tensions will be there as Baku would not be happy with Armenia having a direct railway connection with Russia especially through Azerbaijan itself. But Russian pressure could be instrumental in forcing Baku and Yerevan to cooperate, however unrealistic this might sound presently.

The problem with the new transport communication lines is that without Russian involvement they would quickly cease to operate. All is contingent upon Azerbaijan’s benevolence as new railway lines to Armenia go through its territory.

Interviewed by Yunis Abdullayev

IEPF issued a statement regarding Azerbaijani children at the UN Human Rights Council

News line

Russia accuses Ukrainian military chief of ordering downing of war prisoner plane
22:10 05.07.2025
Türkiye supports firefighting operations in Syria’s Latakia
22:00 05.07.2025
UNRWA calls for immediate fuel delivery to Israel-blockaded Gaza before shutdown of basic services
21:45 05.07.2025
Pashinyan: Armenia needs new constitution
21:20 05.07.2025
UN chief condemns Russia's recent 'series of large-scale' attacks on Ukraine
21:00 05.07.2025
Kazakh servicemen arrive in Azerbaijan to participate in Tarlan - 2025 exercise
20:45 05.07.2025
Erdogan: US has crucial role in achieving ceasefire in Gaza
20:20 05.07.2025
Building collapse in Pakistan kills 15
19:45 05.07.2025
Turkish FM Fidan to attend 17th BRICS Leaders Summit in Rio de Janeiro
19:30 05.07.2025
Australia pledges $283M for green energy project by explosives maker
19:10 05.07.2025
OPEC+ speeds up oil output hikes, adds 548,000 bpd in August
18:45 05.07.2025
Inter completes signing of Ange-Yoan Bonny from Parma
18:20 05.07.2025
Turkish president sees Zangazur corridor 'as part of the geoeconomic revolution'
18:00 05.07.2025
Turkish president urges Azerbaijan, Russia to show restrain amid tension
17:45 05.07.2025
China says war 'not a solution' to Iranian nuclear issue
17:15 05.07.2025
At least 18 people injured after fire alert on Ryanair plane in Majorca as passengers abandon jet & leap from wing
17:00 05.07.2025
Azerbaijani PM meets with UNESCAP executive secretary
16:45 05.07.2025
Lebanese president affirms coordination with Syria, warns against sectarian tensions
16:15 05.07.2025
21 killed in Israeli strikes on tents, school-turned-shelters in Gaza Strip
16:00 05.07.2025
Turkish construction sector takes on international projects worth $6.2B in first half of 2025
15:45 05.07.2025
Azerbaijani woman wrestler becomes European champion
15:30 05.07.2025
Mayor: Death toll in Russian attacks on Kyiv reached two
15:15 05.07.2025
Texas floods kill 24 people and leave many missing from girls' summer camp
14:45 05.07.2025
Conor McGregor has interest in White House fight after Trump's UFC idea
14:30 05.07.2025
Netanyahu era sees 40% surge in Israeli settlements in occupied West Bank
14:15 05.07.2025
Equatorial Guinea sues France in UN court to block sale of Paris mansion
14:00 05.07.2025
US president 'disappointed' over phone call with Putin
13:45 05.07.2025
Academy of Azerbaijan`s State Security Service hosts graduation ceremony
13:30 05.07.2025
Azerbaijan and Pakistan ink memo in Khankendi
13:15 05.07.2025
Trump says there could be Gaza deal next week
13:00 05.07.2025
First flight from Türkiye to Syria launched
12:45 05.07.2025
US marks its 249th anniversary of independence
12:30 05.07.2025
Azerbaijan's role in regional integration discussed at London conference
12:00 05.07.2025
Uzbek Minister: Mirziyoyev's visit to Azerbaijan crucial for dev’t of transport links
11:45 05.07.2025
Trump says US will start talks with China on TikTok deal this week
11:30 05.07.2025
Prime Minister of Pakistan Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif concludes visit to Azerbaijan
11:15 05.07.2025
Pakistani premier proposes low-emissions corridor at Economic Cooperation Organization summit
11:00 05.07.2025
Rwanda pledges to deliver on its part of US-brokered peace deal with DR Congo
10:45 05.07.2025
Hezbollah rejects calls to disarm before end of Israeli ‘aggression’ against Lebanon
10:30 05.07.2025
Trump says Gaza ceasefire deal may come next week after ‘positive’ Hamas response
10:15 05.07.2025
Hamısı