In a bid to accelerate the stalled peace process, a meeting between the Afghan government representatives and the Taliban would be arranged in Turkey.
According to Afghanistan’s Tolo News Agency, the Secretary of the US State Department Antony Blinken sent letter to Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani.
Blinken noted in his letter that he will ask the government of Turkey to host the peace talks between the representatives of the Afghan government and Taliban to reinforce security and stability in Afghanistan.
He urges President Ghani or his authoritative designates to join other representatives of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in this meeting.
Speaking to Eurasia Diary, İrfan Kaya Ülger, a professor of international relations at the Kocaeli University, talked about the importance of Turkey in Asia. He clarified the issues with the possibility of Turkey’s mediation in Afghanistan peace talks as well as the strengthening of Turkey’s influence and power in Central Asia.
Mr Irfan, the Secretary of the US State Department Antony Blinken has intention to ask the government of Turkey to host the peace talks on Afghanistan. Some experts argue that with this gesture, the new US administration considers the importance of Turkey in the international relations. But what is your opinion about that?
The US leadership is aware of Turkey's potential. However, it always wants to use it to his advantage. It is possible to have Turkey in the period considered as an ally.
When it is impossible, Turkey comes up in the form of accusations of not fulfilling its obligations and attaching importance to the cooperation with other forces despite it is being in NATO alliance. I believe that Turkey has three hinterlands. The first of these is Ottoman hinterland. Turkey has historically less or much influence over the former Ottoman geography and can show its strength in the region if he uses it rationally. The second hinterland is the identity of Turkish nationality. Since the beginning of the period bringing the collapse of Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union Turkey has become a part of the Turkish world in the framework of the new world. It has ethnic / cultural affinity with Azerbaijan in Transcaucasia and 4 states in Central Asia. The third hinterland is Turkey’s membership of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation consisting of 57 members. Turkey is a one of the most advanced countries in the Islamic world in terms of its basic economic indicators and humanitarian conditions. Turkey has potential in all these areas, which it has begun to use since the beginning of the 21th century.
The US leadership is always aware of the geopolitical and geostrategic importance of Turkey. Two days ago, the Biden administration issued a document on the Transitional National Security Strategy of the United States. The document clearly shows that the new administration of the US intends to take over the duty of world security through its grand strategy. In the document they attach importance to the protection of the security of Israel in the Middle East as well as the fight against terrorism and the elimination of political conflicts in the region. The military presence of the USA in Afghanistan through NATO, under the name of struggle with Al Qaeda, mainly aims to take over the Central Asian geography. Under the new world conditions, Washington aims to break Russia and China’s influence in Central Asia. Turkey has less or much experience in the arrangement of all the problems of the Middle East and Islamic world. To invite Turkey to host the peace talks by the new US administration is drawing attention as an example showing that it is aware of.
We know that Turkey has better relations with both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Do you think that Turkey has the potential to act as a mediator in talks between the Afghan government and Taliban on the peace process in Afghanistan today?
Turkey makes attempts to engage in the solution of political conflicts in Asia as like in the Balkans and the Middle East. As you mentioned Turkey has strong and close relations with Pakistan. This phenomenon is not something new, and it has existed since the foundation of the government of Turkey. While there was the military junta led by Kenan Evren in Turkey in 1980, Turkey-Pakistan relations were in good condition. At that time in Pakistan, military leader Ziya ül Hak, who overthrew Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was in charge. Diplomatic relationships between two countries are also at best level today. In the past, Pakistan, Turkey and Iran were members of the regional organization called the CENTO. Today, it has been replaced by the Economic Cooperation Organization. Pakistan is also a nuclear-powered actor.
Turkey’s engagement as mediator in the negotiations on Afghanistan could be an important act, while considering the close relations with Pakistan. Turkey has historical knowledge about the Durant line agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Turkey is a country that knows the role of the Pakistani secret service in the armament of Afghans who took refuge in Pakistan and their transformation into the Taliban movement after the occupation of Afghanistan by the USSR in 1979. I consider that Turkey’s engagement as mediator in the negotiations between the Afghan government and Taliban on the peace process in Afghanistan will be welcomed by Pakistan.
We know that Turkey has become political, economic and military power in the wider region including the Middle East, Mediterranean, the South Caucasus and the Black Sea. Russia, the United States and other countries are forced to accept the influence and the power of Turkey in these areas mentioned above. Do you see any possibilities for the strengthening of Turkey in Afghanistan and Central Asia in the near future?
First of all, the foreign policy of any country should follow a course in parallel to its national power. If it does not follow, the connection between utopia and reality will be broken. I believe that Turkey moves in this way step by step. No matter how utopian political goals you may have, it is important to have national power to achieve this.
I believe that Turkey has learned to act prudently. In foreign policy, the era of taking realistic and rational steps instead of adventure has come. Turkey's influence in Transcaucasia and Central Asia will increase gradually. Turkey's links with Transcaucasia was cut for 100 years. As for Central Asia, it remained under Russian influence from the Tsarist period to the early 1990s.
It is not realistic to expect Turkey to take the place of Russia in Transcaucasia and Central Asia in the near future. Turkey is not only aware of the situation, but also trying to increase its influence in these two wider regions through the elements of soft power. Ankara avoids taking a stance that could cause a direct conflict with Russia. Moreover, it should be noted that Chinese influence over Central Asia has also increased in the new period. Therefore, Turkey established Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA) in 1992 by taking into account all of these processes. Today Transcaucasia and Central Asia are still in transition period. Russia's influence continues in the region, but it decreases compared to the past. All States of Transcaucasia and Central Asia are members of the CIS. Some of them are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization established under the leadership of Russia. I don't think utopias can happen immediately in a human life. Turkey’s utopias will take place progressively. The period we are in is the period of avoiding conflict, establishing close relations with the countries of the region through cooperation and soft power elements.
