Tensions between Russia and Ukraine over the conflict of Crimea continue to escalate. The processes of the last week clearly show that the issue will be on the level of a military conflict. However, the main issue is whether the military forces of occupied Ukraine can stand up to Russia.

Ukrainian military expert Alexandr Kovalenko said that if the issue is not resolved peacefully, a military solution will be used, adding that it is undeniable that the Russian military is more technically advanced. Giving a detailed statement on the issue, the expert gave an interview to Eurasia Diary.

- Despite Western sanctions, Russia remains firmly committed to its position on Crimea. In this case, what measures can Ukraine take?

- Ukraine's position on this issue has been, and will remain unchanged - Crimea is a Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia. At the same time, this position should be announced regularly and at all possible international platforms.

As for the sanctions, their goal is to weaken Russia's ability to realise its revanchist ambitions. This is also a very important point that allows us to put pressure on Russia. And it shouldn't be underestimated, just like the way that Moscow's ability to keep its positions unchanged is overestimated. Constant dropping wears away a stone and the principle of economic and political pressure on Russia is the same. 

- According to the latest survey, the population of Ukraine is believed to trusts the army more than all. How do you think the Ukrainian army is ready to fight for the territorial integrity of the country?

The Ukrainian army is always ready to defend its territorial integrity. Over the past 7 years, the level of training, equipment and motivation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine have grown significantly, and new types of weapons of which the supply and development had been slowed down not only for years, but for decades, primarily by the pro-Russian lobby in Ukraine, are now regularly supplied to the troops. For example, literally this week, the army received the first Russian-made anti-ship missile system "Neptune". Equipping the Ukrainian army with this particular complex will significantly reduce the threat of an invasion of the mainland of Ukraine from the sea borders.

- If there is a war taking place, can the Russian plan of aggression be launched in other post-Soviet territories? And did Ukraine and its Western allies foresee this?

- The revanchist policy of Russia implies one way or another. It is unpredictable but it is possible that Russia to return its composition, and if not all but then claim certain part of the territories that once have been part of the former USSR. For Russia, there is no fundamental importance; this return will have the character of complete political dependence of the leadership of this country on the regime. It will be like in Belarus and Armenia with their total economic and military dependences or will end up with the seizure of territories, albeit partial, like in Moldova (Transnistria), Georgia (Abkhazia, South Ossetia) and Ukraine (Crimea and part of Donbass).

These attempts have been, are being and will be carried out by Moscow in the future.

- What are the prospects for the liberation of territories through peaceful negotiations? At the same time, how do you assess the military path?

- The effectiveness of the peace talks is possible only if Russia is ready to agree to the return of the regions seized from Ukraine without putting forward any demands. This is possible only under two conditions. The first is the change of power in Russia, which is ready to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories to ease the sanctions burden. The second is the economic exhaustion of Russia to such a level that it will voluntarily make concessions.

A military solution to the issue is not as easy as it might seem. Of course, the army of Ukraine has changed significantly over the years, but it should be understood that during the de-occupation of its territories, it will face Russian troops. And the Russian army, in whatever state it is now, is one of the most numerous in the world and far exceeds the Armed Forces of Ukraine in terms of the number of equipment and weapons. For example, Russia has the most numerous reserved tanks in the world that can only match with those of which are possessed by the United States and China.

And all this, in fact, endless potential can be thrown over an uncontrolled border in 24/7 mode.

The success of the de-occupation is possible only if Russia does not get its troops involved in this process.