Today Scotland is expected to hold parliamentary elections. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which has been fighting for independence for a long time, is confident that this time luck will smile on them.
Nocola Sturgeon, the party's leader and the first female minister in Scottish history, said at least 67 of the 129 seats in the next election would be held by party members. Thus, the supporters of Scottish independence hope that this time they will be able to break away from the wing of the United Kingdom and declare full independence.
However, the victory of the SNP does not mean the separation from the British. This separation also raises the possibility that Scotland will make tough demands on the United Kingdom, which is not so heartening for official London.
According to British political analysts, supporters of Scottish independence may demand the withdrawal of the Royal Navy’s Faslane base, 42 kilometres west of Glasgow, after the election victory.
It should be noted that the Faslane naval base was built by the United Kingdom during the Cold War in the 1960s. The base currently holds 4 ships and 180 nuclear missiles. According to other sources, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced during the completion of the recent Integrated Review of Britain’s future defence requirements an increase to its stockpile of nuclear missiles by 40 per cent from its current level to 260.
British military officials claim that the purpose of nuclear missiles is to prevent threats that could come directly from Iran, Russia, China and North Korea. If Scotland does not back down, it will pave the way for Iran, especially on the nuclear front. However, the Scottish government, based on peace, does not accept the presence of a military base on its territory.
Neil Watson, an international journalist and political expert from the United Kingdom, gave an interview to Eurasia Diary.
- Today Scotland is holding parliamentary elections. According to a report released on Tuesday, the Scottish National Party was predicted to win 67 of the 129 seats. What is the chance of Scottish Prime Minister and party leader Nicola Sturgeon winning this election, which will ensure Scotland's full independence?
- I think it is unlikely that Nicola Sturgeon will win this election. There are several reasons for this, one of which is that in the last few weeks, she has accused the former leader of the SNP of failing to find him guilty of embezzling state property. Why fail, because it lost many supporters after these unjust accusations.
In addition, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson said that there would be no more independence referendum. Therefore, it is unrealistic for Scotland to secede from the United Kingdom and become an independent state.
- If Scotland gains independence after this election, it may have the right to raise questions about the future operations of Britain’s submarine-based nuclear deterrent, which is based at Faslane in western Scotland..
- The SNP has always spoken out against the operation of the Trident submarine-based nuclear deterrent. I would like to note that recently the Prime Minister Boris Johnson personally announced a proposal to increase the nuclear arsenal of the British Navy by 40 percent.
I would like to add that in 2016, 58 out of 59 Scottish MPs in the British Parliament voted against the modernisation of the Trident submarine system. Today, 56 per cent of Scots protest that this is totally useless after the Cold War and that it requires a lot of money. Their claim is simply to see a nclear-free Scotland.
Of course, all this will call into question the future of the nuclear defence base, but I believe that common sense will definitely prevail here. It is expected that there will be lengthy negotiations between the British Navy and Scotland on the number of both nuclear and conventional weapons for purely defence purposes.
- Britain's Faslane base was established in the 1960s at the height of the Cold War. Today, Britain sees Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as a military threat. And it needs to maintain its nuclear deterrent to dissuade emerging threats, such as Iran, as much as conventional potential threats, such as Russia, China and North Korea. But how will Scotland after winning in these elections reach a deal with Britain on the future operation of the base?
- First of all, I think that there will be no referendum on Scottish independence. Two previous referendums have voted in favour of Scotland remaining part of the United Kingdom. Although Scotland's independence is hypothetical, I am confident that the Scottish leadership will not take any action against Russia and some other countries that threaten us for the security of the British Isles.
- According to British experts, Scotland, taking advantage of its independence status, could work in favour of rival countries, as well as Iran, by particulaerly suspending the operation of a Britain's nuclear base. Do you think this will bring any victory to Tehran, especially in the nuclear arsenal?
- Of course, the weakening of power states such as Britain in any field will fall into the hands of giant countries such as Iran and Russia. In this case, they will try to take full advantage of this opportunity. Thus, both countries will try to implement their plans at the hands of small states. Scotland, for example, is a case in point.
Despite all this, I am convinced that Britain will not weaken and will not have any shortcomings in its armed forces. I can say with confidence that our security service is constantly monitoring the enemy countries, and the British military defence leadership will not allow the reduction of the total military force and weapons arsenal to a dangerous level.
By Elnur Enveroglu
