Despite the tense situation due to internal economic difficulties, Turkey's role in the region and Central Asia has significantly increased. This can also be explained by the expansion of Turkey's large-scale projects in Central Asia, rather than in the West.
Today, Turkey has entered a region that Russia has traditionally considered its zone of interest, while China is rapidly entering. Naturally, neither Moscow nor Beijing likes Ankara's move. In fact, Turkey has no power in the region to compete with Russia or China alone. However, conflicting interests and political barriers in the region allow Turkey to come to the fore. The reasons are related to the current Russian and Chinese factors.
Although Russia and China have similar positions on some issues, it is impossible to call these countries friendly enough. China, the world's second-largest economy, is also a nightmare for Russia. In other words, China is a threat to Russia in terms of population, economic power and territorial claims. In addition, Russia and China, which share common borders, have intersecting interests in neighbouring countries.
Although these countries, the world's second and third largest military power, do not intend to go to open war, they are trying to prevent each other at some point. Turkey's current entry into Central Asia can also be seen in this context.
As mentioned eralier, Russia has always considered the Central Asian region as its sphere of interest. But today, it is gritting its teeth at Turkey's entry into the region and active work. The reason may be China's expansion into the region. Realising that it is difficult to stand up to Beijing alone, Moscow is trying to reduce China's role by leaving Ankara in the region.
Turkey's promotion of the Union of Turkic States project as the number one state is leading Central Asian countries to cool off from the attractive Chinese option. At the same time, although the countries of the region are relatively far from Russia, Moscow hopes to keep them in check, relying on economic dependence and good relations with Ankara.
Political analyst Samir Humbatov gave an interview to EDNews.net about the position of the three countries in the region and the role of Turkey.
- How can Turkey's activation in a complex region like Central Asia and its ability to directly influence the Turkic states contradict the interests of China and Russia?
- Looking at the period when the Central Asian countries gained independence, neither Turkey nor those countries had the same opportunities as today. Over the past 10 years, Turkey has diversified its foreign policy strategy, and according to its multi-vector foreign policy strategy, Turkey has already begun to strengthen relations with Central Asian countries. The new geopolitical reality, especially after the Second Karabakh War, has accelerated these processes. Thus, after seeing the role of Turkey in the Karabakh war, the tendency of Central Asian countries to Turkey has intensified. In short, these countries have begun to accept that Turkey has become a power in the region.
On the other hand, it must be acknowledged that today China has great financial and investment opportunities in Central Asia. At the same time, Russian intelligence is strong in the region. Nevertheless, Turkey has managed to unite Turkic-speaking countries under one umbrella. I suppose Turkey is not moving enough to irritate Russia and China. However, from time to time, this will lead to the neutralisation of the Chinese and Russian factors in the region.
- According to some experts, Russia is deliberately turning a blind eye to Turkey's activity to reduce China's role in the region. How true is this?
- I do not think Russia has turned a blind eye to Turkey's activity. In fact, Russia does not want to see China or Turkey in Central Asia. The process continues in this way, simply because these countries have chosen their direction in the current period. At the same time, large-scale financial resources are being used to implement massive plans in the region. China also plays a major role in the realisation of these funds.
I would also like to point out that China's arrival in the region not only weakens Russia, but also makes China dependent as a major investor. This is not the case for Turkey. Turkey pursues a soft power policy in the region based on its national roots and foreign policy. In my opinion, this is a political line that over time will lead to a decrease in the influence of China and Russia in the region.
- At the same time, Turkey has established very serious relations with Pakistan. It also has certain relations with Afghanistan. Does this mean that Turkey has partially achieved what it wants in the region?
- First of all, let me note that the relations between Turkey and Pakistan is not recent. Its roots go back hundreds of years. Pakistan had a sympathy for Turkey even before independence. After independence, it began to grow further. Even Turkey fully supported Pakistan in the Kashmir issue.
I would like to add that the development of Turkey's political relations with Pakistan and Afghanistan is important in terms of Turkey's interests in the Eurasian world.
Another fact in Pakistan-Afghanistan and Turkey relations is the religious factor that brings the three countries closer. All three countries trust and sympathise with each other in terms of Islamic values.
All that remains is for Turkey to achieve what it wants by developing and deepening relations with Pakistan and Afghanistan. I think Ankara can further strengthen its position in Central Asia through both countries. However, there are no suitable conditions for that yet. Turkey is just waiting for the right moment to achieve the goals.
- In general, Turkey has been involved in very tough processes in the region. Turkey seems to be under heavy burden. Do you think this could worsen Turkey's future development?
- No, I do not think that Turkey is burdening itself by interfering in any political process. In fact, public administration is something that the more opportunities you have in foreign policy, the greater your influence in the world. In the current situation, Turkey's activation in the Middle East, its extremely leading role, as well as its consolidation in different parts of the Eurasian continent as a whole, show that Turkey can adequately overcome this role. It is only apparent that the parties here cannot bear to see Turkey become so strong. That is, in some cases, they even resort to various means to silence Turkey. But in the end, they are still forced to retreat and reckon with Turkey.
Elnur Enveroglu
