The geostrategic studies indicate that the South Caucasus is still an important and significant region in the Eurasian policy of the Great powers, said George Mchedlishvili in his interview to Eurasia Diary.
Georgian expert on the post-soviet region, George Mchedlishvili has touched upon the current political developments in the South Caucasus, including the pessimist position of Armenia to peace and the possibility of a trilateral Caucasus format.
In his interview, he also assessed the potential of Georgia to carry out the mediation policy in the negotiations over the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Eurasia Diary presents an interview;
- First please tell us, why the government of Armenia cannot express its intention to join the negotiations with Georgia and Azerbaijan over the restoration of peace and stability in the region?
Today the main reason Yerevan is not joining the regional format is that Armenia's leadership is too much beholden to Moscow not only for their security, where they think Russia betrayed them, but also for basically daily life. The common knowledge is that Nagorno Karabakh and the seven districts were occupied by Armenia: but at the same time Armenia itself was in a way occupied by Karabagh for 20 years. Particularly harmful was the leadership of Robert Kocharyan in 1998-2008, when most of the strategic assets of the Republic of Armenia were sold to the Russian Federation. Therefore, even now, as the current leadership that is not part of the "Karabagh Clan" wants to change the situation and pull Armenia out of this vicious circle of dependency and isolation. But too much damage had been done in late 90s and early 2000s, and today Armenia is unable to extricate itself from the Russian hold. Sending to Karabagh a politically motivated businessman Ruben Vardanyan could only be interpreted as a stark warning on the part of Moscow that attempting to act independently incurs a price-tag.
Do you think that the Georgia-Azerbaijan-Armenia trilateral format could eliminate the impacts of Foreign powers on the region, as well as play an important role in the restoration of peace and stability in the South Caucasus?
I believe at the current juncture a complete "elimination of impacts" is hardly possible. The South Caucasus region has an enormous geostrategic potential, but at the moment its principal asset is the middle corridor, which does involve China, Turkey, EU and by extention the United States as the most powerful country. Their economic fortunes and relations between themselves as well as with the countries of our region will to a considerable degree shape our future and determine whether we are in a position to employ our geostrategic potential. What is important, in my opinion, is weakening the impact of the Russian Federation. This revisionist power is only obsessed with keeping the region under its control - and as the brutal aggression on Ukraine shows, intimidation and sheer use of force is the only tool in Moscow's arsenal.
- Do you think that Georgia could be a suitable platform to host the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
I think Georgia could be just a platform and a meeting space between the two warring countries (as it has been on several occasions), although not an intermediary of full value. This requires significant political, economic and, if need be, military heft in order to serve a meaningful deterrent to Russia, which has been trying to torpedo the agreement at every turn. Of course, Georgia will benefit from a thorough and ultimate peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, because it will signify the transformation of the South Caucasus into a fully-fledged region of significant potential. Granted, in this case many new routes could go through Armenia because of geographic proximity to both Azerbaijan and Turkey, but taking into account the existing corridors, coupled with Georgia's access to the Black Sea and the volume of goods that might pass the potential Middle Corridor, this should not be a serious concern. At the same time, the geopolitical dividends of the South Caucasus as a meaningful region go beyond just trade and economy, as it signifies genuine political independence, or interdependence, and renders the region far more resilience struggling with the powers that stake their presence and necessity on the divide-and-rule principle - I think everyone understands what power I mean.
Yunis Abdulayev