“The installation of a checkpoint by Azerbaijan at the entrance to the Lachin road is a serious institutional move of geopolitical significance, the consequences of which are too difficult to predict at the moment.”
Ishkhan Verdiyan, Armenian political activist told this to Ednews while commenting the establishment of checkpoint by units of the State Border Service of the Republic of Azerbaijan on the border with Armenia, at the beginning of the Lachin-Khankendi road.
He added that at the local level, Azerbaijan is solving the most important task for itself - in fact, regaining sovereign control over those of its territories, control over which was lost immediately after the collapse of the USSR:
“From the point of view of international law and logic, this is a very constructive step that draws an unambiguous dividing line between the jurisdictions of Armenia and Azerbaijan, along the way closing many critical issues, such as illegal border crossings of individuals and prohibited goods for various purposes. This step will help Armenia to realize more quickly the true range of its operable possibilities, and it will be less distracted by the already senseless political insinuations and will devote more time to constructive dialogue with Azerbaijan on the peace agenda.”
According to him, with all the obviousness of its local advantages, at the global level, the installation of a checkpoint can provoke unpredictable events:
“To begin with, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the checkpoint critically limits control over the Lachin road for Russian peacekeeping contingent (RPC), and it cannot be unequivocally stated that this proceeds from the interests of Russia, rather the opposite. The loss of partial or complete control over the communication of Armenia with Karabakh and further operations of Azerbaijan within Karabakh itself may lead to the fact that the presence of the RPC on the territory of Azerbaijan will lose its relevance, which, based on the theses of Russian officials, is not in its interests. It is not clear how Russia will act in this situation, whether it will put pressure on Azerbaijan or Armenia.”
“In addition, it is completely unclear whether there will be a reaction from Iran and what it will be. Iran, unlike Russia, does not voice its interests in the region, but there is no doubt in the presence of such, however, as well as in Iran's desire to protect these interests. What Iran will do, how it will look at the next outcome of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict - is a secret with seven seals”, I.Verdiyan added.
He stressed that Russia will try, with the help of its proxies inside Armenia, to undermine the situation in the country and remove Prime Minister Pashinyan, taking the situation in Armenia under its full control:
“How Iran will behave in this case - help or hinder Russia - is unclear, but the first option seems more likely. How the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations will develop after Russia regains full control over Armenia is also unclear. It is extremely unlikely that Nikol Pashinyan will stay in power for a long time. His opponents will certainly take advantage of the fact that the checkpoint was installed to accuse Pashinyan of “surrendering” Karabakh and arouse indignation in Armenian society. All tools will be put into circulation - from large media to Russian special services to numerous agents of influence in Armenia's law enforcement system.”
“It is highly likely that the checkpoint provokes a change of roles in the region - Azerbaijan, as mentioned above, will regain its sovereignty, and Armenia will lose it”, he noted.
Ulviyya Shahin
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