Nikoleta Gabrovska-Sofia Office Programme Coordinator, Western Balkans and Turkey Programme Coordinator in her exclusive interview to Eurasia Diary about the recent political changes in Bullgaria.
Eurasia Diary: How do you see the result of presidential election in Bulgaria?
Nikoleta Gabrovska: The results are a direct reflection of the crisis of the political elite, in which Bulgaria found itself to be right now. Politicians from the ruling party understand that this was more of a punishment vote towards them, rather than a major political win of their opponent. Of course, these results should be read in the context of the piling political tension over the past three years – the next care-taking government will be third in a row. Together with that, there are two major factors for Rumen Radev’s victory – poor-led campaign by GERB (the ruling party), combined with their absolute confidence that whoever is their candidate, he/she is a certain winner. The second factor is people’s desire to recognise a public figure without a political background which was the crucial turning point for the socialist party and their candidate. Internationally, the main points of Rumen Radev’s campaign are certainly provoking some eyebrow-raising, but again – his victory shouldn’t be examined as a political phenomenon without certain conditions.
Eurasia Diary: Newly-elected Bulgarian president Rumen Radev calls by media “Pro-Russian” candidate. How do you find it reasonable?
Nikoleta Gabrovska: During his campaign Rumen Radev was openly pro-Russian and this definitely won him the supporters of the socialist party (he is not a member of the party, but was officially nominated by it). During the press-conference at the night of the elections, though, he was way more cautious on topics such as Russia’s sanction-lifting: he explained this decision belongs to the government, which won’t however stop him from having a dialogue with representatives from both Europe and Russia. The lack of Radev’s political background is extremely important when one tries to read the future direction of his presidency – a president can emancipate himself from his supporting party, depending on his personal political will. We already witnessed that with the presidency of Rossen Plevneliev and that would be a best-case scenario for a balanced presidency. Unfortunately, the socialist party’s vice-president-elect (Iliyana Yotova) and the party’s chairperson have shown during the campaign and after the elections that they will strictly follow for the direction declared during the campaign to be kept.
Eurasia Diary: The newly elected Moldovian President Igor Dodon called pro-Russian as well, moreover, both Dodon and Radev win in one day. Some experts try to find hidden connections behind this. What do you think about it?
Nikoleta Gabrovska: Populist and insurgent parties throughout Europe are experiencing a rise and it is logical for pro-Russian points, as counter narratives to the liberal ones, to emerge in their agendas. In that sense such connections are normal, but I wouldn’t qualify them as some well-mastered conspiracies. They are just the unfortunate consequences of the liberal parties and movements’ inability to react to people’s fear and discontent – which on the other hand are perfectly well used by the already mentioned insurgent parties and leaders. We still need to see what will happen in Austria and France, for example.
Eurasia Diary: Bulgarian Prime-Minister Boyko Borissov has tendered his resignation after Radev wins elections. What do you think about it?
Nikoleta Gabrovska: Prime-Minister Borissov had announced he would resign if GERB is not the winning side of these elections at the beginning of October, hoping he would consolidate his electorate, as polls were showing that whoever GERB’s candidate is, he or she would lead the socialists’ candidate with 3-4%. Borissov sees such political gestures as masculine and a matter of honour and he perfectly well knows that not executing his promise would be a political suicide. There is an interesting detail around the first round of the presidential elections – they were combined with a referendum, containing a question on should the Bulgarian electoral system be changed into a majority voting (first-past-the-post system in two rounds). The turnout for the referendum was 50%, of which 72% voted for such a change. Borissov read that as a sign for change of the electoral system, which he may want to implement through the next care-taking government. In any case, the results of the next pre-term parliamentary elections are extremely uncertain as of now.
Bulgarian PM Boyko Borissov
Eurasia Diary: From your viewpoint, how all of this will affect on Bulgaria?
Nikoleta Gabrovska: All political crises are bad in a country such Bulgaria, which still desperately needs judiciary, health-care and educational reform. For the past 5 years we have seen shifting the power between basically two political directions – the one of GERB and the one of the socialists (co-operating with the Turkish party Movement for Rights and Freedoms). And the problem has always been one – total lack of continuity and succession between the two. And zero real shake-off from the oligarchic dependencies. In this sense, the government’s resignation will again slow down the work on the needed reforms and deepen further the overall political disappointment within the society. Newly structured political formations will most probably emerge, especially in the context of this punishing vote, but will they manage to use that energy and harness it into normalising and productive policies, is yet to be seen.
Interview by Fakhri Vakilov
